Modern methods of geographical research. Methodology of geographical science

10.10.2019

Methods of geographical research - ways of obtaining geographic information. The main methods of geographical research are:

1) cartographic method. The map, according to the figurative expression of one of the founders of the Russian - Nikolai Nikolaevich Baransky - is the second language of geography. The map is a unique source of information! It gives an idea of the relative position of objects, their size, the degree of distribution of a particular phenomenon, and much more.

2) historical method. Everything on Earth develops historically. Nothing arises from scratch, therefore, for knowledge modern geography knowledge of history is necessary: the history of the development of the Earth, the history of mankind.

3)Statistical method. It is impossible to talk about countries, peoples, natural objects without using statistical data: what is the height or depth, area of the territory, reserves of natural resources, population, demographic indicators, absolute and relative indicators of production, etc.

4) Economics and Mathematics. If there are numbers, then there are calculations: calculations of population density, mortality and population, balance, GDP per capita, etc.

5) Geographic zoning method. The allocation of physical-geographical (natural) and economic regions is one of the methods for studying geographical science.

6) Comparative geographical. Everything is comparable:
more or less, profitable or disadvantageous, faster or slower. Only comparison makes it possible to more fully describe and evaluate the similarities and differences of certain objects, as well as explain the reasons for these differences.

7)Method field research and observations. Geography cannot be studied only sitting in classrooms and classrooms. What you see with your own eyes is the most valuable geographical information. Description of geographical objects, collection of samples, observation of phenomena - all this is the factual material, which is the subject of study.

8) remote observation method. Modern aerial and space photography is a great help in the study of geography, in the creation, development of the national economy and nature protection, in solving many problems of mankind.

9) Geographic modeling method. The creation of geographic models is an important method for the study of geography. The simplest geographic model is .

10) Geographic forecast. Modern geographical science should not only describe the studied objects and phenomena, but also predict the consequences that humanity can come to in the course of its development. The geographical forecast helps to avoid many undesirable phenomena, reduce Negative influence activities on nature, rational use of resources, decide.

And regional studies use the methods and knowledge, the conclusions of other sciences for their own development and at the same time enrich these branches of knowledge with their data.

Method - a way of knowing, studying natural phenomena and public life(from Greek methods).

In the studies of regional economics, economic geography and regionalism, a complex of scientific methods is used, the main of which are system analysis, cartographic, balance, historical and comparative, statistical and econometric methods, etc.

System analysis

System analysis is a universal technology for solving management problems. In economic geography and regional studies, the main problems are [[Accommodation productive forces| placement]] and development.

System analysis- method scientific research, in which a comprehensive study of the structure of the economy and internal relationships is supplemented by the study of their interaction.

The final conclusions are drawn on the basis of a comparison of direct and feedback. System analysis is a comprehensive analysis using the principle of stages, starting from setting goals, defining tasks, formulating a scientific hypothesis, to a comprehensive study of the features of the optimal variant of production location. At the same time, the optimality criterion is the effectiveness of the option, as well as the maximum satisfaction of the needs of the population.

System analysis is the most developed area of system research in economics, which requires a more detailed presentation of its methodology.

cartographic method

- this is a graphical way of presenting information about the location and development of natural, demographic, socio-economic and other objects in a certain territory.

In economic geography, it is a source of enrichment with information on the location and economy of regions. It allows you to visualize the features of the placement. Thanks to the use of maps, maps, cartograms, cartograms, not only placement features are consciously perceived and remembered, but also statistical materials characterizing the levels of development of industries and regions. The map is the most modern and effective method providing information for the preparation and decision-making.

The cartographic method occupies a special place in economic-geographical and regional studies. At its core, a map is a graphical model of a territory. At the same time, the cartographic method is not only a means for revealing spatial relationships, but often the ultimate goal of research. According to N.N. Baransky. "from the map, all geographical research comes and comes to the map, it begins with the map and ends with the map, the map is the second language of geography."

Economic cartography deals with the display of real-life socio-economic systems and their elements. Methods for displaying socio-economic objects include: the icon method, the method of linear signs and movement lines, the method of areas, the method of qualitative background, the method of isolines (image using lines connecting points on the map with the same quantitative indicators), point method (image of the concentration of objects ) and others. Combination different ways allows you to develop statistical maps, while the sources of information are statistical collections and geographical maps.

Statistical maps represent a type of graphic representation of statistical data on a schematic geographical map that characterizes the level or degree of distribution of a particular phenomenon in a certain territory.

The means of depicting territorial distribution are hatching, background coloring or geometric shapes. In statistical maps, cartograms and cartograms are distinguished.

Cartogram - is a schematic geographic hag on which hatching of varying density, dots or coloring of a certain degree of saturation shows the comparative intensity of some indicator within each unit of the territorial division plotted on the map (for example, population density by region or republic, distribution of regions by crop yields and etc.)

Cartograms are divided into background and point.

Cartogram background- a type of cartogram, on which shading of various density or coloring of a certain degree of saturation shows the intensity of any indicator within a territorial unit.

Accurate cartogram - a kind of cartogram, where the level of the selected phenomenon is depicted using dots. A dot depicts one unit of the population or a certain number of them, showing the density or frequency of manifestation of a certain feature on a geographical map.

Background cartograms are used to depict average or relative indicators, point cartograms are used for volumetric (quantitative) indicators (population, livestock, etc.).

second large group statistical maps are chart diagrams, which are a combination of diagrams with a geographical map. Chart figures are used as figurative signs in cartograms, which are placed on the contour of a geographical map. Cartograms make it possible to reflect geographically more complex statistical and geographical constructions than cartograms.

There are cartodigrams of simple comparison, graphs of spatial displacements, isolines.

On the simple comparison chart unlike a regular chart, the diagrammatic figures depicting the values of the indicator under study are not arranged in a row. as in a regular chart, but are distributed throughout the map in accordance with the district, region or country that they represent.

Elements of the simplest cartographic diagram can be found on a political map, where cities are distinguished by various geometric shapes depending on the number of inhabitants.

Contours(from the Greek. isos - equal, identical, similar) - these are lines of equal value of any quantity in its distribution on the surface, in particular on a geographical map or chart. The isoline reflects the continuous change of the studied quantity depending on two other variables and is used in mapping natural and socio-economic phenomena. Isolines are used to obtain quantitative characteristics of the studied quantities and analyze the correlations between them.

balance method

balance method- equalization of quantitative information about various aspects of the development of the object, phenomenon or process under study.

Compilation of sectoral and regional balance sheets allows one to choose the right correlations between sectors of market specialization, sectors that complement the territorial complex, i.e. providing both the needs of the leading industries and the needs of the population, and service industries. Balances are also necessary for the development of rational interregional and intraregional ties. Compilation of sectoral and regional balances makes it possible to establish the level of complex development of the region, the presence of disproportions in its development. Examples of balances: production and consumption of products, import and export of products of the region, balance labor resources, natural resources, etc.

Of particular importance in economic and geographical research is the model input-output balance (IOB), also known as the input-output model. The input-output balance was first developed by Soviet statisticians in 1924-1925. In the 1930s The American economist (Russian by origin) V. Leontiev proposed his own version of this model, adapted to the conditions of the capitalist economy, which became widely known as the “input-output” model.

The model is described as follows:

A * X + Y = X

A is the matrix of direct costs;
X is the vector of gross outputs;
Y is the vector of final market demand.

The main purpose of this model is to substantiate a rational version of the sectoral structure of the economy of the region under study (or the national economy as a whole) based on the optimization of intersectoral flows, minimizing costs and maximizing the final product.

Historical comparative method

Historical-comparative - a method that involves the study of the distribution of productive forces in the spatio-temporal aspect. The historical-comparative method includes two directions - the method of the historical approach and the comparative-geographical method.

Subject historical approach method is the genesis of the system, its emergence, formation, cognition, development. This method is based primarily on literary, fund, museum sources of information.

Comparative geographical method - a method of comparing countries, regions, cities, results of economic activity, development parameters, demographic characteristics. This method replaces the experiment, allows you to determine the causes, evaluate the influence of conditions and factors on the development of the objects under study. Comparison can be in space and in time. The comparative geographical method is the basis for forecasting by analogy with the development of socio-economic processes.

Statistical and econometric methods

Statistical Methods are based on the application of methods in economic geography and regionalism statistical analysis. Especially widely used in economic and geographical research are the methods of calculating indices, selective study, correlation and regression analysis. Statistical methods are related to econometric methods.

Econometrics - it is a scientific discipline that studies the quantitative aspects of economic phenomena and processes by means of mathematical and statistical analysis. Econometrics covers all aspects of the application of mathematical methods in the economy, reveals, builds and studies specific quantitative dependences of some economic indicators on others, using statistical methods for processing information and assessing the likelihood of constructions, and mathematical methods for their analysis.

The application of mathematical methods in economic geography and the development of spatial econometrics are mainly carried out in the following areas.

1. Mathematical methods in population geography:

modeling of population reproduction;
assessment of population migration;
modeling the efficient use of labor resources.

2. Mathematical methods in the study of settlement systems:

mathematical models of population density;
spatial influence of settlements;
mathematical-geographical method for determining the stages of development in the system of urban settlements.

3. Application of mathematical methods in the study of production-territorial systems.

4. Modeling the processes of self-organization of territorial socio-economic systems.

5. Modeling the process of innovative waves in the distribution and development of productive forces.

6. Modeling the territorial proportions of the development of the Russian economy.

7. Modeling placement by industry.

8. Modeling the formation of economic complexes of the regions.

In economic geography, closely related to economics, urban planning, regional planning, sociological disciplines (i.e., those areas of knowledge in which methods of quantitative assessments and research are actively used), theoretical models and schemes for the development of territorial socio-economic objects are widely developed. The geographical approach to the modeling of geosystems does not imply a simple addition of a large number of different elements: enterprises, settlements. groups of people, etc., but the study of relationships in a dynamically updated external and internal conditions for the development of the region. The integrity of the geosystem implies the property of their emergence. that additional effect in their functioning, which is formed as a result of the systemic interaction of its structural elements. Development computer technology and mathematical modeling led to the fact that on present stage for economic and geographical problems, a lot of software products are offered, with the help of which you can solve a wide range of problems in the field of classification and zoning of the territory, determining dynamic trends to highlight the main trends, choosing the area of \u200b\u200bthe most effective strategies for locating economic and social structures.

Mathematical modeling has an important advantage over the traditional approach - it ensures the objectivity of the consequences of the accepted initial conditions.

There are expert computer systems that connect the qualitative representations of an expert economic geographer with the potential of a computer knowledge base, which makes it possible to develop the most effective solutions on the placement and development of productive forces in conditions of significant uncertainty in the external environment. The ideas of an integrated approach to traditional methods by mathematical modeling methods are implemented in geographic information systems (GIS) and geoinformation technologies (GIT). The main elements of GIS are database management systems (DBMS), systems for their cartographic representation, a complex mathematical models territorial and economic structures, an expert knowledge system, a user interface that allows you to change the parameters of development of territorial and functional objects by expert means. characteristic feature GIS are adaptability to various situations, mobility of its reconfiguration from one territory to another, the ability to accumulate and process information, self-learning and the ability to recognize various problem situations.

In economic geography and regionalism, other methods and models are also used. For example, expert methods based on the use of expert opinions, methods of economic analysis, forecasting, management decision-making, and others. Some of them are considered to be methods of regional analysis and modeling of the regional economy (the technology of their application is disclosed in the fourth chapter).

The variety of methods of economic and geographical research necessitates their application in accordance with the technology of system analysis of the problems of development of economic and geographical objects.

Methods (methods) of geographical research have been formed over thousands of years. They have evolved along with science. At each stage of the evolution of geographical thought, more and more new methods of understanding the geographical world appeared. The first method by which man learned the world, was descriptive method. The science of geography originally arose as description various localities, their nature, population and human economic activity. This first stage of development is reminiscent of the very name of science - geography. For many centuries, geography remained primarily a descriptive science. During this long time, a huge amount of information has been accumulated about the relief, climate, waters, flora and fauna, the population of regions of the Earth known to people. Initially, descriptions of the lands were compiled not so much by merchants, warriors, and even people who accidentally found themselves in a foreign land. Most often, descriptions of unknown lands were not only inaccurate and made without any purpose and system, but also fantastic, made on the basis of rumors and legends. The descriptions were either oral or written, but in all cases they were distorted by the people who made the description of the lands (they were subjective).

The main questions that were solved in the description were: what is being described (island, valley, mountains...), what is the subject of description (size, shape, color...) and, of course, where is the subject? The last question is one of the main ones in geography. You already know that primitive people could succinctly and unmistakably show the location of objects using pictographic schemes - “maps”, simple drawings and maps on leather and wood.

cartographic method appeared simultaneously with the emergence of geography. Along with the description of objects on the earth's surface, a special (geographical) way of reflecting and systematizing knowledge about the territory under study appears. It is no coincidence that N. N. Baransky called the map "the second language of geography." Geographical exploration begins and ends with a map. With the help of the map, you can "embrace" the entire surface of the planet at once.

appeared thousands of years ago forwarding method studying the world. Everything that people learned about new lands, they received during travels, military expeditions. With the help of this method, knowledge about the diversity of the natural and social components of the world was multiplied. Sea expeditions and trips on land still remain one of the main sources of geographic information. The significance of geographical expeditions in the history of mankind is so great that even a whole era in the development of society is called the era of the Great Geographical Discoveries! During the expeditions, various natural phenomena, the economy, and the population of the territories are observed and described. Observation - one of the general scientific methods used in physics, chemistry, and biology. For a geographer, the ability not only to see, but also to observe is one of the most important. In the era of scientific and technological revolution, a huge role in geography is played by observation and assessment of the state of environment under the influence of human (anthropogenic) activity, for the purpose of rational use of natural resources and: nature protection - environmental monitoring.

In addition to observation in geography, it is very widely used Method of measurement.This method also applies to general science. Geographers have been using it since ancient times, although people have been measuring distances between objects on the surface of the Earth long before the advent of science. The pinnacle of using this method in ancient era was the measurement of the size of the Earth by Eratosthenes, and quite accurate. Eratosthenes was one of the founders of mathematical geography, the use of quantitative (mathematical) methods in geography. Initially it was a quantitative method of description, later appeared methods of mathematical analysis, revealing a variety of geographic patterns.

Method ( Greek methods) in science - this is a way to achieve the goal, a way of action; a way of knowing, studying the phenomena of nature and society.

The methods used in economic and geographical research are diverse and can be divided into two main groups: general scientific and private scientific (special).

The effectiveness and reliability of economic and geographical research and the conclusions formulated by science depend on the completeness of the reliance on methodological tools and the correctness of its choice (careful selection of the most effective methods) for each specific study.

General scientific methods:

- description (ancient method from those used by geographers);

- cartographic method(this is a graphical way of presenting information about the location and development of natural demographic, socio-economic and other objects in a certain territory). The cartographic method is often not only a means for revealing spatial relationships, but often the ultimate goal of the study. Baransky N.N.: "... any geographical research comes from the map and comes to the map, it begins with the map and ends with the map, the map is the second language of geography." A map is a mathematically defined, reduced, generalized representation of the surface of the Earth, another celestial body, or outer space, showing the objects located or projected on them in the accepted system of signs. Types of cartographic ( map-analytical) methods:

o map demonstration (the map serves as a demonstration of the results obtained by other methods);

o cartometric (a map is used to obtain initial information and display final results);

o centrographic (the map provides initial information and is used to demonstrate the final result);

- comparative(comparative) method (serves to identify the diversity of forms and types of human activity in natural and socio-economic conditions). The comparative method consists in comparing countries, regions, cities, results of economic activity, development parameters, demographic characteristics. This method is the basis for forecasting by analogy with the development of socio-economic processes;

- historical(contributes to the understanding of territorial objects in space and time, helps to take into account the time factor in the processes of the territorial organization of society). The historical method consists in the analysis of the genesis of the system (location of productive forces): the emergence of the system, formation, cognition, development;

Quantitative methods:

o scoring method(used to assess natural resources and analyze the environmental situation);

o balance method(used in studies of dynamic territorial systems with established flows of resources and products). The balance method is the equalization of quantitative information about various aspects of the development of the studied object of a phenomenon or process. Of particular importance in economic and geographical research is the model intersectoral balance(MOB). The MOB was first developed by Soviet statisticians in 1924-1925. In the 1930s V. Leontiev (USA) proposed his own version of this model, adapted to the conditions of the capitalist economy (the "input-output" model). The main purpose of this model is to substantiate a rational version of the sectoral structure of the region's economy based on the optimization of intersectoral flows, minimizing costs and maximizing the final product;

o statistical method(operations with statistical information about socio-economic processes in the region). Especially widely used are the methods of calculating indices and selective study, correlation and regression analysis, the method of expert assessments;

- modeling, incl. mathematical (modeling of migration processes, urban systems, TPK). Modeling is one of the main categories of the theory of knowledge, the essence of which is the study of phenomena, processes or systems of objects by constructing and studying their models. Consequently, when modeling, the object under study is replaced by another auxiliary or artificial system. Patterns and trends identified in the modeling process are then extended to reality;

o material models(layouts, layouts, dummies, etc.);

o mental (ideal models)(sketches, photographs, maps, drawings, graphs);

- econometric method. Econometrics studies the quantitative aspects of economic phenomena and processes by means of mathematical and statistical analysis;

- geoinformation method(creation of GIS - a means of collecting, storing, mapping and analyzing various information about the territory based on geoinformation technologies);

- expeditionary(collection of primary data, work "in the field");

- sociological(interviewing, questioning);

- system analysis method(this is a comprehensive study of the structure of the economy, internal relationships and interaction of elements. System analysis is the most developed area of system research in economics. To carry out such an analysis, it is necessary to follow such systematization techniques as:

o classification (the grouping of the objects under study into sets that differ mainly in quantitative terms, and the qualitative difference reflects the dynamics of the development of objects and their hierarchical order);

o typology(grouping of the objects under study according to sets (types) that stably differ among themselves in terms of qualitative characteristics);

o concentration(a methodological technique in the study of complex geographical objects, in which either an increase or decrease in the number of additional elements in relation to the main object, associated with it and in varying degrees affecting the completeness of the study);

o taxonization(the process of dividing a territory into comparable or hierarchically subordinated taxa);

o zoning(the process of taxonization, in which the taxa to be identified must meet two criteria: the criterion of specificity and the criterion of unity)).

Private scientific methods:

Zoning (economic, socio-economic, environmental);

The method of "keys" (primary attention is paid to specific local or regional objects, considered as typical or basic in relation to this territorial system);

Methods of "play of scales" (when the phenomenon under study is analyzed at various spatial and hierarchical levels: global, state, regional, local);

Cycle method (method of energy production cycles, method of resource cycles);

Remote aerospace methods (the Earth or other space bodies are studied at a considerable distance, for which air and space vehicles are used):

o aerial methods (visual methods of observation conducted from aircraft; aerial photography, the main view is aerial photography from the 1930s. – the main method of topographic survey):

o space methods (visual observations: direct observations of the state of the atmosphere, the earth's surface, earth objects):

Comparative geographical (geography, unlike most natural sciences, is deprived of its main method - experiment. The method that replaces the experiment in geography is comparative geographical. The essence of the method is to study several territorial systems that exist in reality. In the course of development of these systems there is a death (stagnation) of one and development, prosperity - others. Therefore, having studied a group of similar systems, one can identify those whose location provides favorable conditions for their successful development, and discard obviously losing options. That is, it is necessary to study historical experience and identify the reasons that provide positive or negative results in the compared options and choose the best one).

Thus, the main methods of geographical research are: the method of system analysis, cartographic, historical, comparative, statistical and others.

Literature:

1. Berlyant A.M. Cartography: textbook for high school. M.: Aspect Press, 2002. 336 p.

2. Druzhinin A.G., Zhitnikov V.G. Geography (economic, social and political): 100 exam answers: Express reference book for university students. M.: ICC "Mart"; Rostov n / a: Ed. Center "March", 2005. S. 15-17.

3. Isachenko A.G. Theory and methodology of geographical science: textbook. for stud. universities. M .: Publishing house "Academy", 2004. S. 55-158.

4. Kuzbozhev E.N., Kozieva I.A., Svetovtseva M.G. Economic geography and regional studies (history, methods, state and prospects for the placement of productive forces): textbook. settlement M.: Higher education, 2009. S. 44-50.

5. Martynov V.L., Faibusovich E.L. Socio-economic geography modern world: a textbook for students of higher educational institutions. M.: Ed. Center "Academy", 2010. S. 19-22.

Correlation analysis is a set of methods based on the mathematical theory of correlation, the detection of a correlation between two random features or factors.

Regression analysis is a section of mathematical statistics that combines practical methods for studying the regression dependence between quantities according to statistical data.

Taxon - territorial (geotorial and aquatorial) units with specific qualification features. Equivalent and hierarchically subordinate cells of the territory. Types of taxa: district, area, zone.

In geography, along with methods common to all sciences, special (geographical) methods are also used.

Methods of geographical research can be divided into three groups. Firstly, these are field research methods, when the study of geographical objects takes place directly in the field. Geographic expeditions and permanent stations and laboratories are one of the most important sources of information about the processes taking place in the geographic envelope. With the help of another group of methods - cameral (from Latin camera - room, treasury) - geographic information is processed, systematized, generalized. An example of such work is the processing of materials from aerial and space surveys of the Earth. With the help of cameral methods, the essence of geographical phenomena is known, the laws of their development are established. The third group is experimental methods, with the help of which scientists can test the truth of their assumptions, penetrate deeper into the secrets of nature. As you can see, all methods of geographical research are closely related. At each stage of research, certain methods are used. In order to get to know them in more detail, we will use the historical approach traditional for geography.

Descriptive, expeditionary and cartographic methods are the first in the history of geography. The descriptive method was the very first way of knowing the world around us. For many centuries, geography remained primarily a descriptive science.

Everything that a person learned about new lands, he received during expeditions (travels). During the expeditions, various geographical objects and phenomena are observed and described. The cartographic method appeared simultaneously with the emergence of geography. Along with the description of objects on the earth's surface, a special one appears - a geographical way of displaying and systematizing knowledge about the territory under study. It is no coincidence that the map is called the "second language" of geography. Geographical research begins and ends with it. But the main thing is that with the help of a map you can "embrace" the entire surface of our planet at once.

Methods of comparison, historical and generalization in geography. The accumulation of a huge amount of information about our planet put forward the problem of their generalization and systematization. Comparison of different elements of the geographic envelope led to the fact that similar elements were combined with each other. Such a generalization and at the same time a comparison of geographical data made it possible to group phenomena into different classes, which became the reason for the formation of a typological approach in geography.

Geography was one of the first sciences that mastered the historical approach in the knowledge of the phenomena of the world. Geographers began to compare objects not only by their location, but also by the time of formation. In geography, the historical method is also widely used because the connection between geography and history has always been close.

Mathematical methods and modeling in geography. As long as there were undiscovered lands, geography was not faced with the urgent task of explaining the world. A superficial description of the various territories was sufficient for the study to be considered geographical. But the rapid growth of human economic activity required penetration into the secrets of nature. To do this, geographers were forced to borrow research methods from other sciences. The use of mathematical methods made it possible not only to measure geographical objects, but also to find average indicators in a number of observations, to identify statistical (mathematical) patterns. This led to the discovery of the causes of rain floods on rivers, the emergence of ideas about cyclones and anticyclones, principles for choosing places for building enterprises, etc.

All geographic systems (natural, economic, natural-economic) have a structure, that is, a certain way of organizing the relationships between elements. With the advent of the modeling method in geography, knowledge of the structure of different geosystems has gone far ahead. Models are widely used to simulate processes that cannot be reproduced in experiments and experiments. The models reflect the main properties of the object, and the secondary ones are discarded.

Methods of remote research. Achievements of science and technology in the XX century. greatly changed the traditional ways of studying the Earth. Remote methods are called when the observer (or measuring apparatus) is at some distance from the object of study. At the same time, the area covered by observation is significantly increased. The appearance of materials from aerospace surveys of the earth's surface has led to an increase in the flow of new information about long-known objects and phenomena of the Earth.

Shooting the earth's surface in the optical range (in red, blue, green and other colors) provides information about the state of soils and vegetation cover of the territory, the transparency of water in reservoirs, etc. Shooting in the infrared range invisible to the human eye allows you to obtain information about the temperature land and oceans, on the concentration of agricultural pests. Shooting with radio waves shows the amount of moisture in the soil, the level ground water etc.

With the help of remote methods, information is received in a form that allows it to be put into a computer and automatically processed. This led to the creation of geographic information systems, geographic data banks, which are widely used in cartography and mathematical modeling of geosystems.

Stationary, laboratory and experimental methods. In modern geography, instead of short-term expeditions, complex geographical stations are organized. The stationary method of studying the geographic envelope involves the use of permanent stations, laboratories, and expeditions. The methods of sciences close to geography make it possible to observe under constant conditions a whole complex of geographical phenomena. Thus, geophysical, geochemical and biological methods appeared in geography using the laboratory method characteristic of them (for example, the study of the chemical composition of the soil or the physical properties of polluted air).

The main task of conducting complex stationary studies is to reveal the connections between phenomena. The disclosure of these basic relationships allows, firstly, to create a model of the object under study, and secondly, to conduct an experiment or experiment in nature.

For example, to find out how agriculture affects soil erosion, two plots are selected with the same conditions. The experimental site is plowed up and sown with agricultural crops, while the other (control) site remains unchanged. The extent and rate of soil erosion at the two sites is then measured and a conclusion is made about the impact of agricultural activities on the soil cover.

Today it is not enough to explain why and how geosystems and their elements develop; it is also necessary to foresee how they can change under the influence of man. A new stage of geographical research is coming - the stage of prediction. At this stage, the tasks of what the object will be in the future are solved. For this, environmental monitoring and geographic forecasting are used.

Environmental monitoring. Monitoring (from Latin monitor - warning) is Information system, whose task is to observe and evaluate the environment under the influence of human impact. The purpose of this method is the rational use of natural resources and environmental protection. There are three main types of monitoring: local, regional, global. Unlike the first two, a global monitoring system has not yet been created. It should provide monitoring of planetary changes in the geographic envelope - in the composition of the atmosphere, in the cycles of substances, etc. So far, there are fragments of such monitoring in the form of biosphere reserves, scientific stations and laboratories. They monitor and control physical, chemical, biological changes in the environment. The information received is transmitted to national and international centers.

Geographic forecast. One of the tasks of geographic forecasts is the development of scientifically based predictions about the state and development of natural environment in future. In order to make a forecast reliable, it is necessary, first of all, to rely on historical approach to the object and, accordingly, to consider it in the process of development. There are several hundred forecasting methods. Some of them are familiar to you. The method of geographical analogies makes it possible to transfer the patterns of development of some geosystems to others. At the same time, it can be foreseen that younger systems will follow the path of geosystems that are at a high stage of development. One of the most important forecasting methods is extrapolation - it is, as it were, a continuation of existing patterns into the future. To do this, it is necessary to study the object well enough. Successfully used in forecasting and methods of mathematical modeling.

Geographers are also involved in the preparation of economic and social forecasts, which must also take into account the dynamics of the environment. As a rule, forecasts are related to a specific territory and are made for a specific purpose. For example, the forecast for the integrated development of new territories.