Statistical observation consists in the collection of primary statistical material, in the scientifically organized registration of all significant facts related to the object under consideration. This is the first stage of every statistical study.

The grouping method makes it possible to systematize and classify all the facts collected as a result of mass statistical observation. This is the second stage of the statistical study.

The method of generalizing indicators makes it possible to characterize the studied phenomena and processes with the help of statistical values ​​- absolute, relative and average. At this stage of the statistical study, the interrelations and scales of phenomena are revealed, the patterns of their development are determined, and predictive estimates are given.

At the first stage of statistical research, primary statistical data, or initial statistical information, is formed, which is the foundation of the future statistical building. In order for the building to be durable, solid and of high quality, its foundation must be. If an error was made in the collection of primary statistical data or the material turned out to be of poor quality, this will affect the correctness and reliability of both theoretical and practical conclusions. Therefore, statistical observation from the initial to the final stage - obtaining the final materials - must be carefully thought out and clearly organized. Statistical observation gives raw material for a generalization that begins with a summary. If, during statistical observation, information is obtained about each of its units that characterizes it from many sides, then these reports characterize the entire statistical aggregate and its individual parts. At this stage, the population is divided according to the signs of difference and combined according to the signs of similarity, the total indicators are calculated for the groups and as a whole. Using the grouping method, the studied phenomena are divided into the most important types, characteristic groups and subgroups according to essential features. With the help of groupings, populations that are qualitatively homogeneous in a significant respect are limited, which is a prerequisite for the definition and application of generalizing indicators.

At the final stage of the analysis, with the help of generalizing indicators, relative and average values ​​are calculated, a summary assessment of the variation of signs is given, the dynamics of phenomena is characterized, indices and balance constructions are applied, indicators characterizing the closeness of relationships in the change in signs are calculated. For the purpose of the most rational and visual presentation of digital material, it is presented in the form of tables and graphs.

Statistical observation - the first stage of statistical research

Statistical observation is the first stage of any statistical research, which is a scientifically organized accounting of facts characterizing phenomena and processes according to a single program. public life, and collection of mass data obtained on the basis of this accounting.

However, not every collection of information is a statistical observation. One can talk about statistical observation only when statistical regularities are studied, i.e. those that appear only in the mass process, in large numbers units of a collection. Therefore, statistical observation should be planned, massive and systematic.

The regularity of statistical observation lies in the fact that it is prepared and carried out according to a developed plan, which includes questions of methodology, organization, information collection techniques, control over the quality of the collected material, its reliability, and presentation of the final results. The massive nature of statistical observation suggests that it covers a large number of cases of manifestation of this process, sufficient to obtain truthful statistical data characterizing not only individual units, but the entire population as a whole.

Finally, the systematic nature of statistical observation is determined by the fact that it must be carried out either systematically, or continuously, or regularly. The study of trends and patterns of socio-economic processes characterized by quantitative and qualitative changes is possible only on this basis. From what has been said, it follows that the following requirements are imposed on statistical observation:

• 1) completeness of statistical data (completeness of coverage of units of the studied population, aspects of a particular phenomenon, as well as completeness of coverage over time);
• 2) reliability and accuracy of data;
• 3) their uniformity and comparability.

Program-methodological and organizational issues of statistical observation

Any statistical research must begin with a precise formulation of its purpose and specific tasks, and thus the information that can be obtained in the process of observation. After that, the object and unit of observation are determined, a program is developed, and the type and method of observation are selected.

1. STAGES OF STATISTICAL RESEARCH

The process of studying socio-economic phenomena through a system of statistical methods and quantitative characteristics - a system of indicators, is called statistical research.

The main stages of statistical research are:

1) statistical observation;

2) summary of received data;

3) statistical analysis.

If necessary, a statistical study may contain an additional stage - a statistical forecast.

Statistical observation is a scientifically organized collection of data on the phenomena and processes of social life by registering their essential features according to a pre-developed program of observation. Observation data are primary statistical information about the observed objects, which is the basis for obtaining their general characteristics. Observation acts as one of the main methods of statistics and as one of the most important stages statistical research.

Conducting a statistical study is impossible without a high-quality information base obtained in the course of statistical observation. Therefore, from the moment of changing the idea of ​​statistics as a descriptive science, special rules for conducting observation and special requirements for its results - statistical data are being developed. That is, observation is one of the main methods of statistics.

Observation is the first stage of statistical research, the quality of which determines the achievement of the final objectives of the study.

1.1. Observation is carried out according to a specially prepared program.

The program includes a list of characteristics of the object of study, data on which must be obtained as a result of observation.

When preparing an observation, it is necessary to determine in advance:

1. An observation program in which:

a) the object of observation is defined, i.e. the set of units of the phenomenon that needs to be investigated. Moreover, it is necessary to distinguish the unit of observation from the reporting unit. Reporting unit - a unit that provides statistical data, may consist of several population units, or may coincide with a population unit. For example, in a population survey, the unit might be a household member and the reporting unit might be the household.

b) the boundaries of the object of observation are determined.

c) the characteristics of the object of observation are determined, information about which must be obtained as a result of observation.

2. Time of observation of an object - the time at which or for which information about the object under study is recorded.

3. Timing of the observation. That is, the time period for data collection and the end date of the observation are determined. The terms of observation affect the time of completion of the statistical study as a whole and the timeliness of its conclusions.

4. Means and resources needed for monitoring: the number of qualified specialists; material resources; means of processing the results of observation.

5. Requirements for statistical data. The main requirements are: a) reliability, i.e. information about the object of study should reflect its real state at the time of observation; b) comparability of data, i.e. information obtained as a result of observation should be comparable, which is ensured by a unified methodology for collecting and analyzing data, by units of measurement, etc.

1.2. There are several types of statistical observation.

1. By coverage of population units:

a) solid;

b) non-continuous (selective, monographic, according to the method of the main array)

2. By the time of registration of facts: a) current (continuous); b) discontinuous (periodic, one-time)

3. According to the method of collecting information: a) direct observation; b) documentary observation; c) survey (questionnaire, correspondent, etc.)

Summary - the process of bringing the received data into the system, their processing and calculation of intermediate and general results, the calculation of interrelated analytical values.

The next stage of the statistical study is the preparation of the information obtained during the observation for analysis. This stage is called summary.

The summary includes:

— systematization of information obtained during observations;

- their grouping;

- development of a system of indicators characterizing educated groups;

- creation of development tables for grouped data;

— calculation of derived values ​​according to development tables.

In the literature on the theory of statistics, one often encounters the consideration of summaries and groupings as independent stages research. However, it should be noted that the concept of a summary includes actions for grouping statistical data, so here the concept of “summary” is used as the name of the research stage.

Statistical analysis - research characteristic features structures, connections of phenomena, trends, patterns of development of socio-economic phenomena, for which specific economic-statistical and mathematical-statistical methods are used. Statistical analysis is completed by the interpretation of the obtained results.

Statistical forecast - scientific identification of the state and probable ways of development of phenomena and processes, based on a system of established cause-and-effect relationships and patterns.

EXERCISE 1

As a result of a sample survey wages 60 employees of an industrial enterprise received the following data (Table 1).

Build an interval series of distribution according to the resultant attribute, forming five groups with equal intervals.

Determine the main indicators of variation (dispersion, standard deviation, coefficient of variation), mean power value (mean value of the feature) and structural means. Depict graphically in the form of: a) histograms; b) cumulates; c) ogives. Make a conclusion.

DECISION

1. Let's determine the range of variation according to the performance indicator - according to the length of service according to the formula:

R \u003d Xmax - Xmin \u003d 36 - 5 \u003d 31

where Xmax is the maximum amount of assets

Xmin - the minimum amount of assets

2. Determine the value of the interval

i \u003d R / n \u003d 31/5 \u003d 6.2

taking into account the obtained value of the intervals, we group the banks and obtain

3. Let's build an auxiliary table

Feature group	Meaning of values ​​in a group x i	Quantity feature frequency (frequency) fi	in % of the total ω	Accumulated frequency Si	Interval midpoint	* f i	ω
I 5 – 11,2	6,8,7,5,8,6,10,9,9,7, 6,6,9,10,7,9,10,10, 11,8,9,8, 7, 6, 9, 10		43,3	43,3		210,6	350,73		46,24	1202,24
II 11,2 – 17,4	16,15,13,12,14,14, 12,14,17,13,15,17, 14		21,7		14,3	185,9	310,31		0,36	4,68
III 17,4 – 23,6	18,21,20,20,21,18, 19,22,21,21,21,18, 19		21,7	86,7	20,5	266,5	444,85		31,36	407,68
IV 23,6 –29,8	28,29,25,28, 24				26,7	133,5	221,61	11,8	139,24	696,2
V 29,8 – 36	36,35,33,				32,9	98,7	164,5
TOTAL						895,2	1492		541,2	3282,8

4. The average value of the attribute in the studied population is determined by the weighted arithmetic formula:

of the year

5. Dispersion and standard deviation of a feature is determined by the formula

Definition of volatility

Thus, V>33.3%, therefore, the population is heterogeneous.

6. Definition of fashion

Mode is the value of the feature that occurs most frequently in the studied population. In the studied interval variational series, the mode is calculated by the formula:

where

x M0
– the lower limit of the modal interval:

i M0 is the value of the modal interval;

f M0-1 f M0 f M0+1 are the frequencies (frequencies) of the modal, premodal, and postmodal intervals, respectively.

The modal interval is the interval having the highest frequency (frequency). In our problem, this is the first interval.

7. Calculate the median.

Median - a variant located in the middle of an ordered variation series, dividing it into two equal parts, so that half of the population units have attribute values ​​​​less than the median, and half - more than the median.

In the interval series, the median is determined by the formula:

where is the beginning of the median interval;

- the value of the median interval

is the frequency of the median interval;

is the sum of accumulated frequencies in the pre-median interval.

The median interval is the interval in which the ordinal number of the median is located. To determine it, it is necessary to calculate the sum of the accumulated frequencies up to a number exceeding half of the totality.

According to Gr. 5 auxiliary table we find the interval, the amount of accumulated often exceeds 50%. This is the second interval - from 11.6 to 18.4, and it is the median.

Then

Consequently, half of the employees with work experience less than 13.25 years, and half - more than this value.

6. Draw a series in the form of a polygon, a histogram, a cumulative straight line, an ogive.

Graphical representation plays an important role in the study of variational series, as it allows in a simple and visual form to analyze statistical data.

There are several ways to graphically represent series (histogram, polygon, cumulate, ogive), the choice of which depends on the purpose of the study and on the type of variation series.

The distribution polygon is mainly used to display a discrete series, but you can also build a polygon for an interval series if you first bring it to the maternity one. The distribution polygon is a closed broken line in a rectangular coordinate system with coordinates (x i , q i), where x i is the value of the i-th feature, q i is the frequency or frequency of the i-ro feature.

A distribution histogram is used to display an interval series. To build a histogram on the horizontal axis, successively lay off segments equal to the intervals of the sign, and on these segments, as on the bases, rectangles are built, the heights of which are equal to the frequencies or particulars for a series with equal intervals, densities; for a series with unequal intervals.

Cumulate is a graphic representation of a variational series, when the accumulated frequencies or particulars are plotted on the vertical axis, and the values ​​of the feature are plotted on the horizontal axis. The cumulate serves for graphical representation of both discrete and interval variational series.

Conclusion: Thus, the main indicators of the variation of the studied series were calculated: the average value of the feature - work experience is 14.9 years, the dispersion is calculated equal to 54.713, in turn, the standard deviation of the feature is 7.397. The mode has a value of 9.13, in the modal interval is the first interval of the studied series. The median of the series is 13.108, dividing the series into two equal parts, which indicates that in the organization under study, half of the employees have less than 13.108 years of work experience, and half have more.

TASK 2

We have the following initial data characterizing the dynamics for 1997-2001. (table 2).

Table 2 Initial data

Year	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
Production of granulated sugar, thousand tons	1620	1660	1700	1680	1700

Determine the main indicators of a series of dynamics. Present the calculation in the form of a table. Calculate the average annual values ​​of indicators. In the form of a graphic image - a polygon, indicate the dynamics of the analyzed indicator. Make a conclusion.

DECISION

Given

Year	years
	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
	1620	1660	1700	1680	1700

1) The average level of dynamics is calculated by the formula

2) We calculate chain and basic growth rates as follows:

1. Absolute growth is determined by the formula:

Аib = yi – y0

Aic \u003d yi - yi-1

2. The growth rate is determined by the formula: (%)

Trb = (yi / y0) *100

Trc \u003d (yi / yi-1) * 100

3. The growth rate is determined by the formula: (%)

Tnrb \u003d Trb -100%:

Тnрц = Трц - 100%

4. Average absolute growth:

y n
is the final level of the dynamic series;

y 0
– the initial level of the dynamic series;

n c
is the number of chain absolute increments.

5. Average annual growth rate:

6. Average annual growth rate:

3) Absolute content of 1% increase:

A \u003d Xi-1 / 100

All calculated indicators are summarized in a table.

Indicators	years
	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001
Number of surgeries per period	1620	1660	1700	1680	1700
2. Absolute growth
Aic
3. Growth rate
Trib		102,5	104,9	103,7	104,9
trits		102,5	102,4	98,8	101,2
4. Growth rate
Тпib
Tpits
5. Meaning of 1% increase		16,2	16,6	17,0	16,8

5) Average annual value

7. Draw graphically as a polygon.

Thus, the following is obtained. The largest absolute and relative increase in surgical operations for the period was in 1999 and amounted to 1700, the absolute increase compared to the base year was 80 operations, the growth rate compared to the base year 1997 was 104.9%, and the base growth rate was 4.9 %. The largest chain absolute gains were in 1998 and 1999 - 40 operations each. The highest chain growth rate was observed in 1998 - 102.5%, while the smallest chain growth rate in the number of transactions was in 2000 - 98.8%.

TASK 3

There is data on the sale of goods (see table 3)

Table 3 Initial data on the sale of goods

	Product	Base year		Reporting year
		quantity	price	quantity	price
		1100		1000
			1350		1300
		1650		1700

Determine: a) individual indices ( i p , i q); b) common indices (I p , I q , I pq); c) an absolute change in trade due to: 1) the quantity of goods; 2) prices.

Make a conclusion based on the calculated indicators.

DECISION

Let's create an auxiliary table

View	basic		Reporting		Work		Indices
	Quantity, q 0	Price, p 0	Qty, q 1	Price, p 1	q 0 * p 0	q 1 * p 1	i q \u003d q 1 / q 0	i p \u003d p 1 / p 0	q 1 * p 0
					44000	35000	0,875	0,909	38500
	1100		1000		41800	40000	0,909	1,053	38000
					7500	8400	1,200	0,933	9000
		1350		1300	40500	26000	0,667	0,963	27000
					45000	44000	1,100	0,889	49500
	1650		1700		26400	25500	1,030	0,938	27200
TOTAL					205200	178900			189200

Conclusion: As you can see, the total increase in turnover for the year amounted to (-26300) conventional units, including the impact of changes in the quantity of goods sold by - 16000 and due to changes in the price of goods - 10300 conventional units. The total increase in trade turnover amounted to 87.2%. It should be noted that according to the calculated indices of the quantity of goods by assortment, there is a slight increase in turnover for goods "P" by 120% and goods "C" by 110%, a slight increase in the sale of goods "T" - only 103%. The sales of goods "P" decreased quite significantly - only 66.7% of sales in the base year, sales of goods "H" - 87.5% and goods "O" - 90.9% of the corresponding indicator of the base year slightly higher. The individual price index shows that the price increased only for the product "O" - by 105.3%, at the same time for all other types of goods - "N", "P", "R", "S", "T" the individual price index indicates a negative trend (decrease), respectively - 90.9%; 93.3%;, 96.3%, 88.9; 93.8.

The overall index of the physical volume of sales indicates a slight decrease in the total volume of sales by 94.6%; the general price index indicates a general decrease in the price of goods sold by 92.2%, and the general trade turnover index indicates an overall decrease in trade turnover by 87.2%.

TASK 4

From the initial data of table No. 1 (select lines from 14 to 23), on two grounds - length of service and wages, conduct a correlation-regression analysis, determine the parameters of correlation and determination. Construct a graph of the correlation between two signs (resultant and factorial). Make a conclusion.

DECISION

Initial data

Production experience	Salary
	1800
	2500
	1750
	1580
	1750
	1560
	1210
	1860
	1355
	1480

Straight Line Dependency

The parameters of the equation are determined by the least squares method, by the system of normal equations

To solve the system, we use the method of determinants.

Parameters are calculated by formulas

State educational institution

Higher professional education

"Altai State Medical University"

Federal Agency for Health and Social Development

Department of Economics and Management

Test

in the discipline "Medical statistics"

on the topic: "Stages of statistical research"

Fulfilled

Checked:

Barnaul - 2009

Introduction……………………………………………………………………………….3

1.1 Statistical observation………………………………………….........5

7

1.1.2 Program and methodological issues of statistical observation…………………………………………………………………………....12

2 Summary and grouping of statistical observation materials. The concept of a statistical summary, its objectives and content……………………..15

3 Rational forms of presentation of statistical material………….18

3.1 Statistical table and its elements……………...…………………18

3.2 Graphical method for the study of commercial activities…….....19

4 Problem solving…………………………………………………………….20

Conclusion…………………………………………………………………………….21

List of used literature………………………………………...……22

Introduction

Sanitary (medical) statistics studies issues related to medicine, hygiene, health care. It is an important part of social hygiene and health organization and at the same time it is one of the branches of statistics.

In sanitary statistics, there are three main sections: population health statistics, health statistics and clinical statistics.

Tasks of sanitary statistics:

identification of the characteristics of the state of health of the population and the factors that determine it;

study of data on the network, activities and personnel of health facilities, as well as data on the results of medical and recreational activities;

application of methods of sanitary statistics in experimental, clinical, hygienic and laboratory studies.

Materials of sanitary statistics are aimed at finding ways to improve the health of the population and improve the health care system.

Health statistics are used to:

one). At present, the development of in-depth medical-biological, physical, and other research methods, the introduction of new diagnostic equipment leads to the accumulation of numerical data characterizing the state of the body and environment. Given the amount of information about the organism, one can understand the need for data synthesis using statistical methods;

2). Determination of sanitary and hygienic standards, calculation of doses medicines, determination of standards of physical development, evaluation of the effectiveness of the methods of prevention and treatment used.

Accounting and evaluation indicators reflect the volume or level of the phenomenon under study; analytical indicators are used to characterize the features of the development of a phenomenon, its prevalence in space, the ratio of its parts, and the relationship with other phenomena.

Statistical methodology is a set general rules(principles) and special techniques and methods of statistical research. The general rules of statistical research are based on the provisions of socio-economic theory and the principle of the dialectical method of cognition. They form the theoretical basis of statistics. Based on the theoretical base, statistics applies specific methods of digital coverage of the phenomenon, which are expressed in three stages (stages) of statistical research:

1. Mass scientifically organized observation, with the help of which primary information about individual units (factors) of the phenomenon under study is obtained.

2. Grouping and summary of the material, which is the division of the entire mass of cases (units) into homogeneous groups and subgroups, the calculation of the results for each group and subgroup and the presentation of the results in the form of a statistical table.

3. Processing of statistical indicators obtained during the summary and analysis of the results to obtain reasonable conclusions about the state of the phenomenon under study and the patterns of its development. This is the concept of science - Statistics. The subject of statistics, as a science, is the study of the quantitative side of mass social phenomena in close connection with their qualitative characteristics. Three main features of statistics can be distinguished from this definition:

1. the quantitative side of phenomena is investigated;

2. mass social phenomena are studied;

3. A quantitative description of mass phenomena is given based on the study of qualitative parameters.

Statistics involves the use of a set of dialectical methods of cognition. In the process of statistical research, special methods are also used, invented to better represent statistical populations.

The statistical totality is the mass of units united by a single qualitative basis, but differing from each other in a number of varying characteristics. Variation (change) of signs (more often quantitative) can occur in time, in space, in the mutual change of one sign from another. For example, the size of the wages of a worker from the number of products released by him.

1.1 Statistical observation

Statistical observation is a systematic scientifically based collection of data or information about socio-economic phenomena and processes. Statistical observation is the initial stage of economic and statistical research.

1) Statistical observation must meet the following requirements: observed phenomena must have scientific or practical value, express certain socio-economic types of phenomena;

2) the direct collection of mass data should ensure the completeness of the facts related to this issue, since phenomena are in constant change and development. If complete data are not available, the analysis and conclusions may be erroneous;

3) to ensure the reliability of statistical data, a thorough and comprehensive check of the quality of the collected facts is necessary, which is one of the most important characteristics of statistical observation;

4) the scientific organization of statistical observation is necessary in order to create best conditions to obtain objective data.

The tasks facing the manager determine the purpose of supervision. The overall goal of statistical observation is information support management. the goal determines the object of statistical observation - a set of phenomena, objects covered by observation. The object of observation consists of certain units. A person, a fact, an object, a process, etc. can act as a unit of an aggregate. The unit of observation is the primary element of the object of statistical observation. This element is the carrier of signs registered during observation. The unit of observation is the element of the population for which the required data are collected. The choice of the object and units of observation depends on the specific conditions. Units of observation have many different characteristics. Correctness, which is manifested not in an individual phenomenon, but in a mass of homogeneous phenomena, when summarizing the data of a statistical population, is called a statistical regularity. The law of large numbers is of fundamental importance for the study of statistical patterns. In a large number of observations, random multidirectional deviations cancel each other out. In the process of observation, the most significant or interrelated features are used to record data. Clarity in determining the unit of observation makes it possible to reasonably determine the recorded signs of observation with a minimum number of signs related to the problem or phenomenon under study. Refinement and formation of characteristics of the unit of observation is carried out on the basis of the following general rules: These general approaches when determining the features, the units of observation are supplemented by specific features of the processes under study.

The unit of observation should not be confused with the reporting unit. A reporting unit is such a unit from which reporting data is received in a conditional manner according to approved forms. If the observation is carried out by reporting, then the reporting unit can basically be the same as the observation unit. The reporting unit is also called informing. It may not match the unit of observation.

After defining the object, the researcher must highlight the boundaries that define the studied population, phenomenon. To limit the object, specific values ​​or limits of features are set. Such quantitative restrictions on features are called qualifications. This is a number of features, the quantitative value of which, during statistical observation, serves as the basis for accounting (or not assigning) a unit in the population under study.

The point or period of observation is the time at which the data is recorded. The moment of observation is set in accordance with the purpose, features of the phenomenon. In practice, it is also called the critical moment. Some phenomena, processes have seasonal or other cyclical components.

1.1.1 Classification of statistical observation according to various criteria

Statistical observation is subdivided into:

1) by type of observation into 2 groups:

By coverage of population units into continuous and non-continuous;

Statistical work, as a rule, is built in the form of a series of successive stages, or stages (Fig. 2.6.). However, this scheme is not an established template once and for all, and in the daily practice of healthcare institutions, where all of the above steps are carried out, it can be modified depending on the objectives and goals of the study. So, filling in accounting documents corresponds to the stage of statistical observation. Compilation of periodic reports - the stage of statistical summary and grouping of materials. The analysis of the activities of a medical institution consists in the preparation of text reports, explanatory notes and business reviews that give a scientific and medical interpretation and explanation of digital data.

Stages of statistical research

Any properly organized statistical work is built according to the same type of scheme, equivalent in its main stages and stages. Sanitary-statistical research consists, as already noted, of four successive stages, which, in turn, break up into a number of separate statistical operations.

First stage is a preparatory work, which includes the preparation of a well-thought-out, clear plan and program of research. The result of the entire study as a whole largely depends on the thoroughness and scrupulousness of the preparatory work.

Second phase- this is a statistical observation or collection of materials, which consists in the registration of individual phenomena, single facts, their signs and elements. In medical institutions, this stage is carried out in the form of filling in certain accounting documents.

Third stage is a statistical (tabular) summary and grouping of the received materials, i.e. the first counting operation for the processing of "statistical raw materials". Thus, the summary consists in systematizing and summarizing individual records and summarizing in the form of statistical tables. A practical example of a summary can be reports from medical institutions.

Fourth stage- counting processing and analysis of materials. It consists in obtaining the absolute numbers of derived quantities, their qualitative analysis and scientific and medical interpretation (comparison with other materials, results and conclusions, literary and graphic design, publication). The practical expression of the analysis is the preparation of an explanatory note, i.e. text part of the report, summary-analytical or market review.

The allocation of three stages by some authors (combining the first two) or expanding to five stages (separation of computational processing and analysis) is not essential. You can accept a scheme with any number of stages, because what is important is not their number, but continuity, inextricable connection, strict sequence, interdependence and conditionality, occurring on the basis of a correct grouping. Mistakes made in one link can nullify all subsequent work.

Preparatory work and its content. The task of the preparatory work is to draw up a program and plan for the study. The organizational plan is outlined as a whole and for individual stages. The most important direction in this case is the determination of the purpose of the study, the plan and program of observation and summary.

Individual elements of the first stage can be presented in a certain sequence:

Establishing the purpose and objectives of the study, i.e. formulation of theoretical provisions and determination of real needs that caused the need this study, its limits and content.

So the wording “studying the incidence of the population” is unclear and very vague, therefore, it is necessary to clarify the types of diseases to be studied (general, professional, with temporary disability, etc.), the purposefulness of the work (finding out the impact on the dental health of the population of working conditions, living conditions , the quality of medical and preventive or sanitary and anti-epidemic measures, etc.).

The researcher must first familiarize himself in detail with the essence of the issue and with published literary or documentary sources.

Definition of the object of observation, i.e. the main totality of the studied persons or phenomena, its number and nature. The object of observation - who or what is to be studied - is, as a rule, certain contingents of persons (workers, employees, schoolchildren, conscripts, etc.). Sources of water supply, dormitories, trade enterprises and other institutions subject to sanitary supervision can also serve as an object, in special experimental work - animals and plants. Thus, the object of observation can be people, objects, phenomena, events, etc.

Determining the scope of observation. The question of the amount of material (patients, experiments, experimental animals) is associated with the degree of homogeneity of the studied population. The more homogeneous the population, the fewer observations are required. In addition to the estimated number of observations, the concept of the scope of work also includes the degree of detail of the study, i.e. the number of registered features.

One of the most important sections of the preparatory work is the establishment of the unit of observation, or the primary case of counting, i.e. those persons, objects or phenomena that would become an element of counting, a kind of "atom" of the studied population, which bears its signs.

The establishment of a unified unit of observation ensures the comparability of materials, the ability to "compare the comparable", because comparison is the soul of statistics, its basis. A clear definition of the unit of observation is necessary for the accuracy and uniformity of the collected materials, for the correctness of subsequent generalizations. The content of the unit of observation is determined by the goals and objectives of the study. For example, when studying various kinds each of them has its own unit of observation.

Even such seemingly simple questions included in the census form, such as literacy (how to take into account a person who can read but cannot write), marital status (registered or actual marriage), nationality (a child of parents of different nationalities), etc., require clarification. .P.

Clarifications are also needed when taking into account doctors (whether to include workers not in their specialty or pensioners), during the census of the housing stock (what is considered an apartment); when determining surgical intervention (whether to consider abortion, biopsy, skin grafting, etc. as an operation). For example, if you ask the question "How is your dental health?" several people, one will rate it as bad, another as good, a third as satisfactory, and so on. But all these are subjective assessments, and an objective study of the health of the teeth of the same individuals can lead to the same assessments of dental health in all subjects or to other assessments that differ from subjective assessments.

The subject of observation requires serious attention, i.e. These are the organizers and participants of the work. It is necessary to foresee in advance the forces and qualifications of personnel filling out and developing documentation, controlling and responsible for collecting material. Moreover, the number of participants at different stages of work may vary. The volume and program of the study often depend on the preparedness and qualifications of the participants in the work.

The organizational or organizational-technical plan of observation also includes questions about the place and time of observation. The place of observation is the administrative-territorial boundaries: a village or several villages (point settlements with the presence of doctors), an administrative district, a city or its district, a territory, a region, a republic. In medical-geographical studies, devoted in particular to issues of regional pathology, certain areas are selected (for example, the study of the physical development of children in the Arctic, the spread of dentoalveolar anomalies among the inhabitants of Sakhalin, the spread of thyroid pathology among adolescents in the Magadan region). Study time, i.e. specific terms are determined both for the observation period and for the entire study as a whole (both development and analysis). Depending on the objectives of the study, its period is planned. For example, a study over the past 5 years or from January 1 of the next year, for a certain season (when studying the effectiveness of a summer health campaign or spa treatment). Sometimes the question of the term is closely related to the research method (anamnestic, follow-up, etc.). Along with the usual one-time "cross-sectional" studies over a short period of time, so-called "longitudinal" or cohort studies are used, i.e. long-term observations of the same population group (“cohort”).

You should also indicate the sources of obtaining materials. Most often they are primary accounting medical documents: “Statistical coupon” (account form No. 25-2 / y), “Card of a person who left the hospital” (account form No. 066 / y), infectious disease, food, acute occupational poisoning ”(account form No. 058 / y) and others. Often these are specially designed documents. Sometimes the research is based on reporting documents. But since Because they contain ready-made and, moreover, limited groupings, they are of little use for in-depth analysis. For some works, such literary sources as bulletins of the World Health Organization (WHO) and other UN bodies, official reference publications, etc. are used.

The monitoring plan should include various forms practical implementation research results (compilation of a report and an explanatory note to it, a summary analytical review, report, publication, article, brochure, monograph, reference book). Summing up, we can say that the monitoring plan should answer the questions: what, where, when, by whom, and how will be studied. Speaking about the plan and the monitoring program, it must be emphasized that the list of data to be collected is determined by the monitoring program, and the procedure for implementing the program is established by the monitoring plan.

The research program includes several parts devoted to the choice of the goal, the tasks for achieving it, research methods, methods of observation, the definition of the unit of observation and the collection of relevant information.

In practice, the list of program questions and their individual features is expressed in the form of an accounting and statistical document, mainly of a card type (form, form, questionnaire) and less often of a list type (magazine, statement, account book). Generally accepted officially valid medical documents of the same type are approved by the relevant authorities (accounting - by the Ministry of Health, reporting - by the State Statistics Committee, etc.).

An extremely important stage of work, which has exclusively importance, is the creation of special programs for in-depth research.

Simultaneously with the research program, a plan and program for the upcoming summary (drafts and layouts of worksheets) are drawn up. The preparation of the program is preceded by the theoretical development of the problem and practical tasks, the creation of working hypotheses, pathogenetic groups, as well as the development of a system of indicators for future analysis. The English statistician A. Bradford Hill (1958) points out: “The main and decisive step in conducting special surveys is the compilation of an accounting form. No matter how much attention you give to this task, it can never be too much.

When moving to mechanized accounting and development, you should leave room for markup ciphers, and provide for a clear wording of questions and their number. Answers should be specific and related to certain conditions (in particular, taking into account the place and time).

An example of a statistical research program in pediatrics

There are certain rules for compiling a statistical map.

First, it should not be overloaded. It is necessary to include only the necessary and necessary questions that will be needed in subsequent development.

Secondly, questions should be clearly and precisely worded and not cause various interpretations(and sometimes - mistrust or fear). Examples of vague wordings can be such as “the alleged place of infection” (either the entrance gate of the infection, or the area), “nutrition of the ulcer patient” (it is not clear - this refers to the diet or fatness, “reduced nutrition”).

Thirdly, the answers should be clear and categorical (yes, no, number, diagnosis). It's even better if they can be marked with a hint for underlining.

Fourthly, the construction of the program provides for the coordination and mutual control of issues (diagnosis, gender, age, profession and work experience, year of graduation educational institution etc.).

A necessary addition to the statistical map is an instruction (sometimes printed on the map) that explains the meaning of terms, the procedure for filling out and maintaining documents using specific examples.

There are no trifles in statistics, and the concise nature of the questions emphasizes this especially. N.I. Pirogov pointed out the significance of the brevity of the statistical program: "There is no need to go into details about each subject: one word entered in the column will sometimes say everything you need to know." N.I. Pirogov also wrote that statisticians should act according to a single definite plan.

Sometimes, to test the program and methodology for collecting materials, preliminary development is carried out on a limited scale.

A very important prerequisite for the success of the study is a collective discussion of the plan and program (and subsequently also the results) with interested and competent persons, as well as with the participants in the work.

Modern statistical research can be extensive, large-scale. In any case, it is advisable to estimate in advance the amount of work to be done and the costs required for this. Some of the latter may be covered in certain cases from traditional sources (for example, salaries medical workers), but some may require special appropriations, the allocation of additional human and material resources.

Main stages of statistical research

Consider the most important method of statistics - statistical observation.

Using various methods and techniques of statistical methodology

requires the availability of comprehensive and reliable information about the studied

object. The study of mass social phenomena includes the stages of collecting

statistical information and its primary processing, information and grouping

observation results in certain aggregates, generalization and analysis

received materials.

At the first stage of statistical research, primary

statistical data, or raw statistical information that

is the foundation of the future statistical building. For the building to be

solid, solid and high-quality should be its basis. If when collecting

primary statistical data, an error was made or the material turned out to be

poor quality, it will affect the correctness and reliability of both

theoretical as well as practical findings. Therefore, statistical

observation from the initial to the final stage - obtaining the final

materials - should be carefully thought out and clearly organized.

Statistical observation provides the source material for generalization, the beginning

which serves as a summary. If during statistical observation about each of its

unit receive information that characterizes it from many sides, then the data

summaries characterize the entire statistical population and its individual parts.

At this stage, the population is divided according to the signs of difference and combined according to

signs of similarity, total indicators are calculated for groups and in

in general. Using the grouping method, the studied phenomena are divided into the most important

types, characteristic groups and subgroups according to essential features. Via

groupings are limited qualitatively homogeneous in a significant respect

totality, which is a prerequisite for the definition and application

summary indicators.

At the final stage of the analysis with the help of generalizing indicators

relative and average values ​​are calculated, a summary assessment is given

variations of signs, the dynamics of phenomena is characterized, indices are applied,

balance constructions, indicators are calculated that characterize the tightness

connections in the change of signs. For the most rational and clear

presentation of digital material, it is presented in the form of tables and graphs.

3. Statistical observation: concept, basic forms.

This is a scientific and organizational work to collect data. Forms: stat. 1) reporting, cat. based on documentary accounting. since 1998, 4 unified forms of federal state supervision have been introduced: FP-1 (project issue), FP-2 (investment), FP-3 (financial state of organizations), FP-4 (number of -t workers, labor), 2) specially organized observation (census), 3) a register is a s-ma pok-lei, which characterizes each unit of observation: registers of us- niya, pr-ty, construction sites and contractors. org-tions, retail and wholesale trade. Types of observation: 1) continuous, non-continuous (selective, qualified based on the main array method, monograph). Observation is current, period., One-time. Observation methods: direct, documentary, survey (forwarding agent, questionnaire, private, correspondence). Statistical observations are carried out according to the plan, which includes: program-methodological issues (goals, tasks), organizational issues (time, place). As a result of the observations, errors occur, the cat reduces the accuracy of the observations, therefore, data control is carried out (logical and counting). As a result of checking the authentic data, the following observation errors are revealed: random. errors (registration errors), intentional errors, unintentional (system. and non-system.), errors of representativeness (representativeness).

Program-methodological issues of statistical observation.

Program and methodological issues of statistical observation

Each observation is carried out with a specific purpose. When conducting it, it is necessary to establish what is to be examined. The following questions need to be addressed:

Object of observation - a set of objects, phenomena, from which information should be collected. When defining an object, its main distinctive features(signs). Any object of mass observations consists of their individual units, so it is necessary to decide what is the element of the totality that will serve as the unit of observation.

Unit of observation - this is an integral element of the object, which is the carrier of signs subject to registration and the basis of the account.

Qualification - these are certain quantitative restrictions for the object of observation.

sign - this is a property that characterizes certain features and characteristics inherent in the units of the studied population.

Organizational issues of statistical observation.

The observation program is drawn up in the form of forms (questionnaires, forms), in which primary data are entered. A necessary addition to the forms is an instruction that explains the meaning of the questions.

The organizational issues of the program include:

terms of observation;

critical moment of observation;

preparatory work;

The period of observation to which the recorded information is referred. It is called the objective observation time. This might be a certain period of time (day, decade, month) or a certain moment. The moment to which the recorded information relates is called the critical moment of observation.

For example, the critical moment of the micro-census of 1994. was 0.00 am on the night of February 13-14. By establishing the critical moment of observation, one can determine the true state of affairs with photographic accuracy.

Preparatory work provides for the provision of observation with documents, as well as the compilation of a list of reporting units, forms, instructions.

Documents m. will be filled in during the observation or based on its results.

Important place in the system preparatory work has the selection and training of personnel, as well as briefing those who will participate in the observation.