Assessment of the potential market capacity. How to Calculate Market Capacity in Marketing

23.09.2019

By market capacity we mean the volume of a product (service) that can be sold on the market for a certain period of time (usually a year).

Market capacity shows how much a product can be consumed by the market in a specific period of time under specific conditions, i.e. at a certain price for the product, the economic situation in the country, market conditions and marketing efforts of sellers. When specific conditions change, the market capacity also changes. The capacity of the market and the dynamics of its change enable the seller to preliminarily assess whether this market is promising for him or not.

It is necessary to distinguish between potential capacity and real (actual).

The potential market capacity takes into account the presence of latent demand for the product and therefore may differ from the real one.

Estimation of the market capacity (hereinafter, the market capacity refers to the actual capacity) depends on the type of product and its purpose.

Below are several ways to calculate market capacity:

1) based on production volume including exports and imports:

where - the volume of production for the year for a particular type of product or product group;

- the volume of imports of state and non-state structures;

and - balances at the beginning and end of the analyzed period, respectively;

- the volume of exports of state and non-state structures;

- market volume.

Peculiarities:

Data on government stocks and production volumes in a number of industries are available only to official government bodies. Production figures are often understated in order to evade full taxes. Data on imports are distorted due to the presence of "black" imports. Special marketing research is not required. The method gives approximate results, which should be refined by other methods.

2) according to the norms of consumption by the population:

where - the volume of consumption of goods per person per year;

- the number of people using the product.

Essentially, it is the theoretical or potential market capacity. It is used for quickly consumed goods purchased systematically.

Features: marketing research is required to find consumption rates. You can use known data, taking into account categories of the population. Consumption rates depend on the age of the population, place of residence, region, solvency. For new consumer products, research is required to determine consumption rates.

Consider annual market Moscow. The number of toothpaste users is 80% of the total population.

E \u003d 365 * 20 * 10,000,000 * 0.8 g, or 58,400 tons

Beer consumption - 40 liters per person per year.

The Russian market for the year.

The proportion of the population that consumes beer K = 50%.

E \u003d 140,000,000 * 40 * 0.5 \u003d 240 million dl.

3) Market capacity in monetary terms:

where Q- market capacity for the year;

P - the number of buyers of goods in the market;

q- average number of purchases per year;

R - average unit purchase price.

4) You can also assess the market capacity with the help of panel studies. Panel research allows you to obtain the necessary information about the changes taking place in the market through regular surveys of the same group of stores (retail outlets panel) or a group of consumers (consumer panels).

EXAMPLES OF MARKET CAPACITY ASSESSMENT:

The initial data and methods for calculating the demand for industrial and technical products, with the exception of some differences, which will be discussed below, are essentially the same as for consumer goods.

The current market demand (market capacity) is often determined based on the normative method. This method involves a sequential decomposition of the market potential up to finding estimates of demand for a particular product or brand based on the use of a number of standards and share indicators.

Example: A company sells an additive (industrial product) intended for use with water softening chemicals in boiler rooms. Since many enterprises do not yet use this additive, it is required to assess the current and possible market potential, as well as the actual level of demand in a certain geographical area. The calculation is made as follows.

On the basis of reporting, regulatory and statistical information, the volume of water consumption by all firms in a certain region that have boiler houses was determined - 7,500,000 hl;

Consumption rate of softener per liter of water: 1%;

Share of firms using this tool: 72%;

The consumption rate of the additive per liter of product: 9%.

Possible market potential is calculated:

7,500,000 hl * 0.01 * 0.72 * 0.09 \u003d 486,000 l.

Studies have shown that the proportion of firms already using the additive is 54%.

Based on these data, the total current market demand is determined:

7,500,000 hl * 0.01 * 0.72 * 0.09 * 0.54 \u003d 262,000 liters.

If the firm's goal is to achieve a market share of 40%, selling a product in this region(current market demand for the firm) should be brought up to 105,000 liters.

Difficulty this method, obviously, consists in finding the appropriate standards and share indicators. Obtaining them usually requires special research.

Consider an example of assessing the market capacity for a new product- TV screen cleaning kit

The monitor screen care product is a set consisting of a spray and 50 dry disposable cleaning wipes.

Currently, the possibility of modifying this tool to expand its scope, in particular, to clean the screens of home TVs, is being considered.

We will assess the market capacity of this product based on the following data:

The population of Russia (N) is about 145 million people;

The average composition of the family (Сс) is about 3.2 people;

The approximate number of families will then be: Kc = 145: 3.2 = 45.3 million families;

Average number of TVs per family St = 1.4;

The total number of TVs in the country Kt = 45.3 * 1.4 = 63.42 million units:

Let one cleaning kit last for 1 year.

Let's adjust the data to take into account the fact that about 30% of the country's population lives below the poverty line.

H = 145 (1 - 0.3) = 101.5 million people;

Ks - 101.5: 3.2 = 31.7 million families;

Kt = 31.7 1.4 = 44.38 million TV sets.

Thus, if one cleaning kit is purchased for each TV, the market capacity will be about 44 million kits.

However, it is quite obvious that this value characterizes the potential capacity, and not the actual one, since all TV owners will not immediately buy a new cleaning agent.

It is known that in the classification of consumers according to the criterion of attitude to a new product, lovers of new products, who try to immediately purchase them, make up approximately 13%. We will introduce an adjustment factor based on this group of consumers (they are called innovators).

H = 101.5 0.13 = 13.2 million people:

Kc = 13.2: 3.2 = 4.12 million families;

Kt \u003d 4.12 1.4 \u003d 5.77 million TVs.

Thus, based on consumer perception of the new product, in the first year of sale, the TV screen cleaner market can be estimated at 5.7 million cleaning kits.

If the consumer likes the product, and the manufacturer draws up an effective marketing program for this product, then the market capacity can be 7-8 times larger.

beer market capacity.

Beer consumption per capita in Russia is 20 liters per year. It is known that in European countries this figure can reach 140 liters. The lifestyle of Russians tends to approach the global one. The result of this is an ever-increasing consumption of beer.

What are the actual and potential capacities Russian market beer?

Taking into account the fact that the population of Russia is approximately 147 million people, the actual capacity of the Russian beer market is:

20 l * 147 million 2.9 billion liters per year;

potential capacity of the Russian beer market:

140 l * 147 million 20.6 billion liters per year.

Market capacity of household antifreezes.

Firm "Gelis-Int" - the leader in the Russian market of household antifreezes - estimates the capacity of this market based on the following considerations. Four large Russian firms operate on the market, the total volume of sales of which in 2003 amounted to 7 million liters. For imports, based on customs statistics, 500 thousand liters were received. Consequently, the actual capacity of the Russian market of household antifreezes in 2003 amounted to 7.5 million liters.

Further, it was taken into account that not all owners of heating equipment use antifreezes, some consumers use ordinary water due to the fact that they do not have to pay for it. Numerous surveys conducted at exhibitions have shown that approximately 30% of potential antifreeze consumers prefer to fill in water. Given that 7.5 million liters are consumed by 70% of potential consumers, it is easy to calculate the potential capacity of the Russian market for household antifreeze. It is 10.7 million liters per year.

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As you can see, there are many different approaches to assessing the market capacity. Which one to choose depends on the product, the market, the specifics of the country (how much the necessary information is available in it) and the capabilities of the company (financial and intellectual). As a rule, it is impossible to accurately calculate the size of the market, but it can be estimated with a degree of accuracy that is quite sufficient for making decisions. To assess the market capacity, you need to apply creativity and persistence in obtaining access to the source of information.

Determining the capacity of the market, an enterprise entering this market is not entitled to count on its full value, taking into account the presence and work of competing firms in the market. Therefore, it is also important to have data on your own share in this market (if the company is already present on it) and to calculate the possible market share in the future (when entering the market or when assessing the results of its future activities).

Market share is calculated using the formula :

D \u003d Pr / O * 100%,

D - the company's market share;

Etc- the volume of sales of the enterprise in the market;

O - total sales of a given product in a given market.

Assessment of the state of demand is an important area of market research. Marketers identify several situations that characterize the state of demand.

Successful sales within a country or region inevitably involve risk analysis. One of the most relevant indicators to determine the potential volume of product sales in a new segment for the company is the capacity of the selected market.

The essence of the term

One of the main tasks, the fulfillment of which is necessary for the successful development of the company, is the determination of the market capacity. Without this indicator, it is difficult to establish how promising the activity of a particular enterprise is.

Determining the market capacity comes down to identifying the potential volume of goods sold within a specific period of time (in most cases, a year is taken into account). At the same time, to form a position according to which any sales are possible, regardless of the number of competitors and market saturation, is rather reckless.

It is also worth noting that it is necessary to determine the capacity of the market relevant to the enterprise, using money or tons as units of account. The capacity indicator can be measured in two categories: real and potential.

In the first case, the actual quantity of services or goods calculated in natural and monetary units is determined, which the market consumes over a certain period of time. As for potential capacity, it is a hypothetical indicator that reflects the maximum possible level of volume of goods and services that can be sold, say, in a year.

Indicators of potential turnover are important, since they allow to objectively determine the prospects for integration into a particular market or its specific segment. You can calculate the potential in the designated area of activity using the following formula: potential market capacity + real = market potential of the enterprise.

The higher the identified potential, the more attractive the market can be considered. In turn, when the difference between the two values is minimal, this indicates the stabilization of the market and the absence of growth. If we also take into account the impact of competing companies, then with the fact of price pressure on margins, the successful operation of an enterprise in this market segment is under obvious threat.

What is the real market capacity measured for?

This indicator is relevant for several reasons:

1. By identifying the real volume, the company's share in the desired market segment is determined. The same scheme is used to constantly track the position of the company. The same data should be collected for key competitors.

2. By analyzing trends in capacity changes, relatively accurate sales planning becomes possible and, as a result, the formation of an up-to-date marketing strategy for the company.

Market capacity is determined by various methods, each of which involves research with different costs and the amount of resources used. Moreover, the more expensive the technique, the more accurate the result will be in the end.

Factors affecting the capacity index

Such an indicator as the capacity of the market for services and goods can be defined as an element that is quite stable for the vast majority of industries in Russia. During the year it can change by 10-15%. At the same time, it is worth understanding what factors can affect the capacity indicator. These are the following elements:

price fluctuations;
mobility and elasticity of demand;
degree of market development;
main product characteristics;
advertising policy;
macroeconomic indicators;
presence on the market of products with similar characteristics, etc.

How is capacity rated?

It is impossible to single out any method of evaluation as universal. The selection of specific analysis tools is determined by the specifics of the enterprise.

If we consider a similar process in the Russian business sphere, it is worth noting that companies do not always have enough money for qualitative research, and besides, decisions are often made too quickly. In this case, the market capacity is assessed by using ready-made studies, which are secondary information.

If we consider the most popular criteria that are used in the evaluation process, then it is worth highlighting the following indicators:

volume of consumption;
structural characteristics;
indirect methods;
volume of sales;
volume of production.

At the same time, when forming an analysis scheme, it is necessary to take into account the features of the promotion of goods from the manufacturer to the consumer. To obtain an extremely objective result, it makes sense to combine several methods.

Parameters that are taken into account in the assessment

When calculating market capacity, the following indicators are taken into account:

Territory. It is important to accurately define the boundaries within which the study will be carried out. This can be a country, region, county or city, in other words, the territory where the company plans to be active. To estimate the capacity index in such large market areas as a region or a country, it makes sense to use government statistics. As for small territories, in this case field research can be dispensed with, since in most cases market statistics are not kept.
Prices. The volume of the market can be measured in monetary and natural units. But first it is necessary to determine the prices (wholesale or retail) from which the research will be based.
Time. The most common time parameter used in capacity calculations is the year. This fact is explained by the ability to analyze various seasonal changes in demand and their impact on the market volume. As an example, we can cite such a segment as building materials, the sale of which in the overwhelming majority of cases is subject to a specific cycle. For example, sales skylights and roofing materials reach their peak in autumn period. Based on this, it would be unreasonable to calculate the capacity of the building materials market based on the data obtained in the spring.
Products. Starting the evaluation process, it is necessary to determine the specific products for which the demand will be analyzed.
Segments. It is worth considering the fact that the market often consists of segments that are heterogeneous, so their size must be determined separately. If we cite the market of sealants as an example, then here we can distinguish a fairly tangible division into professional products and for ordinary people. And important is the fact that the behavior of buyers within these segments differs, and significantly. Even products for professionals can be divided into sub-segments: products aimed at industrial manufacturers and construction organizations. In this case, the capacity of the goods market is measured first in each segment and subsegment, and then summed up.

When estimating the size of specific markets, a systematic approach is important, as they are constantly changing.

The bottom-up approach

This technique involves making calculations from the consumer or the target audience. In this case, in order to calculate the market capacity, the following formula is used:

EP \u003d CHA * NP * Ced.

At the same time, EP is an indicator of market capacity, NA indicates the size of the audience, NP displays the consumption rates of a particular product, and Ced is the cost of a unit of production.

The calculations are based on statistical data.

Top-down principle

In this case, information on the production of goods or data received from the manufacturer itself is used as the basis for calculations. With such a scheme, the market capacity indicator will be equal to the sum of all retail sales those companies that are engaged in production within the same profile. If the abundance of market players does not allow analyzing all of them, the indicators of the largest enterprises are taken into account, the total share of which reaches 80-90%.

As for data sources, in this case, information from public reporting or information obtained as a result of a survey is used.

Evaluation through sales analysis

When using such a scheme, the market capacity is estimated by analyzing the largest retail chains. As a source of information, data on real checks of consumers are used. Based on this information, a representative sample is made, and the results obtained are extrapolated to the territory of the country. At the same time, it will not be possible to determine the reaction of representatives of the target audience. But on the other hand, it will be possible to track actual sales in dynamics.

Calculation based on structural characteristics

This scheme is relevant when it is necessary to assess the market capacity across a country or a specific region. Information for analysis is taken from regional and state statistics. And in order to calculate the market capacity, the following formula is applied:

V \u003d P + I - E + (He - Ok) + (Zn - Zk).

In this case, P is the volume of production, I - imports, E - exports, It means the volume of balances at the beginning of the period, Ok indicates the volume of balances at the end of the period, Zn - the amount of stocks at the beginning of the period, Zk - stocks at the end of the period.

Calculation by consumption volumes

This technique is based on the analysis of the consumer approach. It is about determining the number of buyers and predicting the average level of consumption. Such a calculation helps to get an objective answer to the question of how many goods the market is able to absorb during a specific period of time.

In this case, the calculation of market capacity (V) is as follows: V = K*N.

In this formula, K means the expected volume of consumption of a particular product by one buyer during a certain period, and N indicates the maximum number of consumers who are ready to purchase a product during the same period.

If we take into account consumer products, then it is worth applying the calculation of rational consumption rates, the subsistence minimum and minimum consumer budgets for different categories of the population.

Results

Based on the above information, we can conclude that any company operating within the CIS needs to determine the capacity of the Russian markets, which are considered as a real prospect for new activities. Without such calculations, the enterprise has no guarantees that the launched product will be in the expected demand.

the maximum possible volume of goods, works or services that can be sold in a given market or market segment for a selected period of time, for example, in the national goods market, or the sales market of one company, or the territorial market

Information about the concept of market capacity, definition of market capacity and types of market capacity, including actual and potential market capacity, market capacity research, market capacity research goals and factors influencing market capacity, market capacity formula and market capacity calculation, capacity calculation market by various methods, the value of the market capacity indicator for business

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Market capacity is, the definition

The market capacity is calculated as a result of research or its segment, the actual or potential quantity, works or services that are sold on the market or may be sold in the future for the selected . Market capacity studies are necessary for business entities for and future. Various methods are usually used to determine the market capacity; when using several methods in one study, the calculations of this indicator are more accurate.

The market capacity is the size of the market for a particular service or service, expressed in the total volume of goods for the billing period; or general per category of goods, expressed in the purchasing power of the population. Often, instead of the concept of "market capacity", its synonyms are used - the size and the market.

Why do we need to calculate market capacity?

The market capacity is the possible volume of sales of goods / services at a certain price level. The market capacity indicator is calculated in (, tugriks, etc.) - i.e. it is the maximum amount that (sellers) in a given market can receive under constant circumstances (volume of supply, level of demand, etc.). Market capacity is the volume of those goods or services that are offered and purchased within the market ().

The market capacity is the volume of transactions for the purchase and sale of goods or services made in a certain territory (territorial market) or in a separate (branch market).

The market capacity is the potential volume of sales of a certain product on the market during a given period, depending on the demand for the product, price levels, the general market, business activity.

On the capacity of the tourism market

The market capacity is the quantity (value) of goods that the market can absorb under certain conditions over a certain period of time. As a rule, the market capacity is determined in the context of specific goods and services.

The market capacity is the total effective demand for a particular product at the prevailing price level.

The market capacity is the total solvency of buyers for a particular product at the current price level for this product.

The market capacity is the possible volume of sales of goods of a certain type or services for a certain period at the existing price level. Market capacity is not a constant value, its change depends on many variables of a general and specific nature - the existing demand for a product, the degree of its elasticity, the level of potential, their number, the manufacturer for advertising, price levels, geographical location and general market conditions.

The market capacity is the maximum amount of sales that all markets can achieve within a certain period.

The market capacity is the maximum possible quantity of a product that can be sold within a certain market in a certain period of time.

The concept of market capacity

If we turn to business terminology, then in the marketing sense - market capacity - the total effective demand of buyers for a certain product at the current price level. However, there are other definitions that are similar in nature.

Why do you need to know what is the market capacity of a particular product or group of goods and what share does it occupy in the market (as a rule, they calculate the market capacity and / or the position of the organization in this market)? First of all, in order to correctly assess the situation and the dynamics of changes in the market and, accordingly, make the only correct management decisions, which in the future will affect the viability of this enterprise or the product it produces (sales). Of course, this does not always work out, but, nevertheless ... you need to try.

In other words, market capacity is one of the key characteristics of any market, and without deep and detailed information about this indicator, "entering it" pursuing bold and ambitious plans would not be entirely correct.

Types of market capacity

In global practice, there are 3 types of market capacity:

actual;

Potential;

Available.

In kind (in pieces);

In value terms (in rubles);

In the volume of goods (in liters, kilograms, etc.).

Let's give short description each type of market capacity.

Potential market capacity

Potential market capacity - the size of the market, based on the maximum level of development of demand for a product or service among consumers. The maximum level of demand means that the culture of using the product has reached its maximum: consumers consume the product as often as possible and use it constantly. Potential market capacity is the maximum possible market size, which is determined on the basis that all potential consumers know and use the product category.

The potential market capacity is a concept artificially introduced into marketing and has no practical significance, in connection with the definition of the concept of "market capacity". Instead of this concept, it is correct to use the concept of potential demand or potential supply, possible under certain conditions.

Actual market capacity

Actual or real market capacity - the size of the market based on the current level of development of demand for a product or service among the population. The actual market capacity is determined based on the current level of knowledge, consumption and use of the product among consumers.

Available market capacity

Available market capacity - the size of the market that a company can claim with its product and its characteristics (distribution, price, audience) or the level of demand that a company can satisfy with its resources. In other words, when calculating the available market capacity, the company narrows the actual market size, considering as potential buyers not all market consumers, but only those who meet its target audience criteria.

Market capacity of a country or region

It is determined on a territorial basis, based on production volumes, carryover stocks at the beginning of the year and balances at the end of the year.

Market capacity of a particular product or group of products

It is valued on a commodity basis based on the needs for this product.

Market capacity of the firm, company

It is calculated for a specific enterprise based on available resources and capabilities.

Purpose of Market Capacity Research

Knowing the size of the market is essential for:

Market penetration by a new company;

Identification of new niches/segments;

Determining market trends;

Forecast of market development;

Definition of the company's development strategy.

Thus, determining the market capacity and attractiveness (potential opportunities) of each of its segments allows the company to answer questions about the advisability of entering this market and what price niche to occupy.

Calculating market size is crucial for business, and the cost of an error in calculating market size in monetary terms can be in the millions conventional units. Therefore, a marketer or development director must have adequate methods for calculating market capacity (and use them in practice).

Market Capacity Study Methodology

The practice of marketing research shows that data on the market capacity of certain goods and on the share occupied by individual manufacturers are currently of great interest to the manufacturers themselves. They are necessary both to expand the position of a company that already occupies a stable position in the market, and to enter the market of a new company or brand.

The need for such information has already been formed: today there are many organizations that conduct this kind of marketing research. However, after reading the reports and articles on such studies, there are numerous questions about both the conduct and writing of reports. Therefore, I would like to raise the question of the correctness of using certain methods to study the market capacity and the most common, in our opinion, mistakes. We think that this kind of discussion will be interesting and useful for those working in this field.

The study of market capacity or market demand involves determining the volume of sales in a selected market of a particular brand of goods or a set of brands of goods for a specific period of time.

The study of these parameters is usually carried out in five main areas:

Analysis of secondary information;

Production and sale of products;

Costs and consumer behavior;

Calculation of capacity based on the consumption norms of this type of product;

Determination of capacity based on "reduction" of sales volumes (when the known market capacity in one region is the basis for calculating the market capacity in another region by adjusting it using reduction factors).

Analysis of secondary information

It includes the analysis of all documentation that may contain information about the market of interest to us and may be useful in marketing activities: data from authorities, market reviews, specialized magazines and articles, Internet data, etc. However, information obtained in this way is more often of everything turns out to be incomplete, quite difficult to use when practical application and often of dubious validity.

Market research for the production and sale of products

Includes a study of manufacturers, wholesalers and . The information obtained from this source makes it possible to determine the actual sales volumes and representation of manufacturers and trademarks. Given that the number of sellers is smaller than the number of buyers, such research is often faster and cheaper than consumer research. The problem is how accurate the information provided by manufacturers or sellers will be, and how representative of the sample of sellers interviewed will be representative of the general population (the entire mass of retail outlets selling products on the market).

Costs and consumer behavior

We study either the costs that consumers have made for the products of interest to us over a certain period of time, or the frequency of purchases and the volumes of purchased products together with the average retail sale price, or the consumption rates of this product. At the same time, the study allows us to raise a wide range of materials related to the behavior and motivation of consumers: their attitude to a particular brand, the volume of a one-time purchase, the frequency of purchasing a product, the expected price of a product, the degree of brand visibility, brand loyalty, the motivation for choosing a particular brand. goods, etc. The question of the accuracy of such information is how faithfully and truthfully the buyers will reproduce the data on their consumption.

Consumption rates for this type of product

This approach is used, as a rule, for food products and consumables. The statistical basis for the calculations are the annual consumption rates per inhabitant and the total population. Thus, the final capacity figure is obtained by multiplying the consumption rate per inhabitant by the value of the total population.

Bringing sales volumes

A similar calculation methodology is used mainly by companies with significant experience in certain geographical markets. The calculations use data on the actual volume of sales in one region and the factors that determine sales. With the help of the latter, the coefficients for converting sales of one region to another are determined (coefficients for reducing the population, average wages, urbanization, prices, consumption patterns, etc.).

Conducting research on manufacturers and sellers of products in order to obtain market data is quite common for a marketing company, but mistakes can also be made here.

As experience shows, one of the most common mistakes is non-compliance with the representativeness of the sample.

Identification of cause-and-effect relationships in the market under study is carried out on the basis of systematization and analysis of data. Systematization of data consists in the construction of grouped and analytical tables, dynamic series of analyzed indicators, graphs, charts, etc. This is the preparatory stage of information analysis for its quantitative and qualitative assessment.

Processing and analysis is carried out using well-known methods, namely grouping, index and graphical methods, construction and analysis of time series. Causal relationships and dependencies are established as a result of the correlation-regression analysis of time series.

Ultimately, a description of the cause-and-effect relationships caused by the interaction of various factors will make it possible to build a development model in the market and determine its capacity.

Factors affecting the market capacity

Market capacity is formed under the influence of many factors, each of which, in certain situations, can both stimulate the market and restrain its development, limiting its capacity. The whole set of factors can be divided into two groups - general and specific.

Common are the socio-economic factors that determine the market capacity of any product:

The volume and structure of the product offer, including by manufacturing enterprises;

The material basis for the formation of any world commodity market is the international division of labor, while the national commodity market is based on the social division of labor within the country. The consequence of this is the relative independence of any world commodity market, which is manifested in the features of the dynamics and structure of development, in the presence of a high level of concentration of “unified” customer requirements for the product, the conditions for its operation and service.

The main parameter of the world commodity market is its capacity.

The capacity of the world commodity market should be understood as that part of the total market demand of all countries that is satisfied by external sources, that is, import. The size of world imports of a given product (usually per year) can be approximated as the capacity of the world commodity market.

The capacity of the national commodity market is the volume of goods sold on it during a certain period (usually a year). It is calculated on the basis of industrial and foreign trade statistics in physical units or by value:

The import capacity of the national market for a particular product for the year is measured by the size of direct and indirect imports, to which is added (or subtracted) the difference in the available imported goods from consumers or importers in comparison with the previous year.

Sources of information about the market capacity are statistical, industry and company directories, industry and general economic journals.

Capacity of the global financial market

Market volume financial services and the share of a financial organization are determined within the identified product and geographical boundaries of the financial services market, the composition of customers (consumers) and competitors.

The capacity of the financial market can be defined as the sum of the volume (turnover) of financial services provided by all financial institutions for a certain period:

To determine the financial resources of the market, the capacity of the financial services market can be defined as the sum of the (core capital) of financial institutions operating in a particular market.

This indicator is more applicable to the market with an identical institutional composition of financial institutions. For example, such an indicator is applicable to the banking services market, where only credit organizations operate, to the insurance services market, if the majority of existing insurers can be compared in terms of the amount of assets (fixed capital), etc.

When determining the capacity of the regional financial services market, one should take into account the volume of financial services provided by financial institutions registered in the region under consideration (taking into account the volume of financial services of their branches, branches, representative offices, operating cash desks, additional offices, etc. located in this region) , and the volume of financial services of branches (branches, representative offices, operating cash desks, additional offices, etc.) of organizations located in another region.

In the absence of data on branches (departments, representative offices, operating cash desks, additional offices, etc.) of financial organizations, the capacity of the regional market can be calculated using the formula:

Capacity of the world currency market

In the world of international finance, at the moment there is such a situation where it is the largest among all financial markets in the world. The capital of the foreign exchange market at the moment is London, which accounts for 36.7% of global.

It is believed that the daily turnover in the Forex market was:

The market capacity shows the saturation of the market with financial instruments and its participants.

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A few years ago, from the lips of one head of a large food enterprise (invited to lead in Rostov-on-Don from Moscow), I heard a phrase that struck me with its "non-standard". He said literally the following: "The market is rubber - how much we produce, so much we will sell!" However... it didn't work out to sell exactly as much as they produced, and he was sent back to Moscow as having failed to justify the hopes of the business owners.

And indeed, how can one say that the market is "rubber"? Any sane person understands that in a "certain territory" it is impossible to sell more than is bought there. This sales volume is market capacity.

Why do you need to know what is the market capacity of a particular product or group of goods and what is the company's share in the market (as a rule, they calculate the market capacity and / or the organization's position in this market)? First of all, in order to correctly assess the situation and the dynamics of changes in the market and, accordingly, make the only correct management decisions, which in the future will affect the viability of this enterprise or the product that it produces (sells). Of course, this does not always work out, but, nevertheless ... you need to try.

In other words, market capacity is one of the key characteristics of any market, and without deep and detailed information about this indicator, "going into it" pursuing bold and ambitious plans would not be entirely correct.

Key indicators of market capacity.

1. How is the market capacity measured?

As a rule, market capacity is measured in physical and/or monetary terms. In this case, it is necessary to "delineate" the territory in which the capacity will be calculated. As a rule, this is a city, district or region, i.e. geographically defined area.

The year is usually chosen as the time parameter. Why exactly a year? Because many goods and services are inherent in the seasonal factor of ice cream, for example.

Example 1

Note:
As we can see, this assessment of the market capacity is given only in physical terms.

Example 2
According to our calculations, the capacity of the crushed stone and lime screening market in the Kuguevsky district is:

2. Change in market capacity in dynamics.

Market capacity tends to increase, decrease or remain unchanged. As a rule, this information is very important, as mentioned earlier, for making certain management decisions.

An example of changes in market capacity in dynamics (by years)

It is clear that growth or decline is due to certain factors. What? In this particular case, the expected increase in consumption is associated with an increase in funding for the construction and repair of roads.

3. Influence of macroeconomic and other indicators.

Market capacity depends on the market demand for a given product or service, as well as other factors. These factors include:

degree of development of this market;
appearance on the market of similar or other products with similar properties (characteristics);
elasticity of demand;
price level;
changes in macroeconomic indicators;
product quality;
effectiveness of promotion to the market and advertising costs;
other factors.

How do macroeconomic indicators affect the market capacity? Yes, very easy! Let's take a look at the real estate market as an example. If you carefully look at the main economic and social indicators of the Rostov region in January-December 2004, you can see that the real disposable money income of the population increased by 10.5% compared to January-December 2003.

If there is more money, they are usually either spent or put aside "in the bins." What can you spend money on or where to invest? The issue is relevant and requires a serious, balanced approach. The main factors for assessing "where?": return-risk.

And if earlier the dollar was a favorite means for "sucking in" banknotes due to its stable growth, then recently it has not been growing, and sometimes it even ... drops. But do you need to invest somewhere? There are not many options. Banks? Unfortunately, interest rates are low. Where else? To real estate! Here is the rapid rise in prices, due to a sharp increase in demand, and this, in addition to the general increase in prices associated with an increase in costs, wages etc.

If there are alternative investment opportunities with higher returns than offered by banks and low level risk, naturally, cash flows will rush there. A certain time lag will pass and the outflow of money from the real estate sector may cause a decrease in prices in this sector of the economy. But this is not to be expected in the near future.

How is market capacity calculated?

As a rule, in analytical articles one or another market capacity is given, but no substantiation of the given "specific" figures is given. Most eminent both Russian and foreign Authors, in their monographs, rather deftly move away from concrete examples and calculations.

For example, it is not clear to me why the same world-renowned F. Kotler in his "Fundamentals of Marketing", such a problem as "market capacity" and "calculation of market capacity", is practically not given attention.

I would like to immediately stipulate the fact that the estimated market capacity is "an estimated or predicted value" and nothing more. Why exactly? Because this value is calculated on the basis of certain assumptions and generalizations of various facts that took place in the past, but not in the future. However, it often happens that the calculated and real indicators of the market capacity differ.

Mathematically, market capacity can be expressed as follows:

E = M x C; where:

E - market capacity in physical or monetary terms (units/year, rubles/year);

M - the number of goods sold per year (units);

C - cost of goods (rubles)

There are various approaches and methods for calculating the market capacity, I will list some of them:

Expert approach to determining the market capacity;

Economic and mathematical modeling of market capacity;

The methodology for calculating the market capacity based on statistical data, as well as a number of other methods.

Within the framework of this article, it is not possible to dwell on one or another technique in detail, because. each has its own merits and demerits. However, in the opinion of the Author, there is no "universal methodology or approach", so the methodology for calculating the market capacity for a particular product or service should be selected individually.

The methodology for calculating the capacity of the tobacco products market, developed and tested by the Author at the end of 1999, gave the following results: at a dollar exchange rate of 27 rubles. - the annual market capacity of Rostov-on-Don and the Rostov region in monetary terms amounted to $64.1 million per year. I repeat that this is a calculated value. What was she actually like? This question, perhaps, would be answered by the marketers of the Don tobacco.

By carrying out calculations, it is possible to obtain results with a fairly large scatter. Let's assume that in physical terms we have reached certain figures, but ... data on the capacity of the cigarette market were considered at wholesale prices. If all this is calculated by retail prices, then the result will change in the direction of increase.

An example of calculating the capacity of the pig meat market in Rostov-on-Don

Meat consumption per capita, according to the State Statistics Committee, is at least 49 kg / year per capita, with the recommended norm of 74-75 kg / year.

The population of Rostov-on-Don is 1,080,000 people.

Meat market capacity in Rostov-on-Don in real terms, kg/year.

Estimated capacity of the pork market in Rostov-on-Don in natural terms, kg/year.

We accept the cost of 1 kg. pig meat - 100 rubles. Consequently, the capacity of the pig meat market in terms of price is about 1.535 billion rubles per year.

It should be borne in mind that any calculation of the market capacity has its own characteristics, and sometimes requires the introduction of certain correction factors, and the above method for calculating the capacity of the pig meat market is absolutely inapplicable to the Republic of Tatarstan, because. by virtue of religious characteristics the structure of meat consumption there is somewhat different. That is why the choice of methodology and approach must be treated with care and attention.

Instruction

You can calculate the market capacity both in natural terms (pieces, tons, liters, etc.) and in monetary terms. Mathematically, the market volume can be determined as follows:
E \u003d M x C, where
M - the amount of goods sold in expression;
C is the price per unit of goods sold.

But you must remember that there are different kinds markets, and hence the approaches to determining their capacity will be different. The most common method is the overall assessment of market capacity. It is used to calculate the maximum demand for a product. In this case, first take data on the total population and the average level of income. The volume calculated in this way is gradually reduced. First, allocate from that part of the income that goes to the purchase of food, from it - that part that goes to the purchase of semi-finished products, of which - for vegetable semi-finished products, and then - potato semi-finished products.

At the second stage of the study, find what is the maximum share of the existing potential market that the company can master. At the same time, use data on the market segment - the number of consumers of semi-finished potato products and the volume of products manufactured by competitors. Based on this, draw a conclusion about the maximum possible volume of sales of goods. Remember that its excess threatens the company with unrealized inventory.

You can calculate the total market size as follows (using the beef market as an example):
E \u003d N × PP x K x SP x PG x C, where
H - population aged 5 years and older;
PP - the percentage of residents who consume dumplings;
K - the average amount of consumption by one consumer per year;
SP - the average consumption of dumplings by one consumer at a time;
PG - percentage of consumers who prefer dumplings with beef;
C - the average price of a portion of dumplings with beef.

Market capacity is the possible volume of sales of goods or services at a given price. The market capacity indicator is measured in monetary units and characterizes the maximum amount of revenue that a seller can receive in a given market with constant factors such as supply, demand and price.

Instruction

Do not confuse the concept of capacity market with its volume. Capacity market is rather theoretical, since it is impossible to force all potential buyers to purchase the manufactured product. The size market is the actual sales volume for a certain period.

So the capacity market can be thought of as the product of the quantity of goods and the market price. There are several methods for estimating capacity market. One of them - the method of estimating the total capacity - is used to determine the current demand when introducing a new product to the market or withdrawing an obsolete product. It can be used to establish, for example, the potential demand for a new type of product.

In order to evaluate the capacity market, first take data on the total population and its income level. Then select from the amount of income the amount that is directed to the purchase of certain types of goods, for example, food. Of these, highlight the cost of semi-finished products, and then dumplings, for example. This is how capacity is calculated. market for a new product to be released.