Belarus population. population of belarus

Population of Belarus is a community of people permanently residing on the territory of the Republic. The concept of "population of Belarus" will be close in meaning - "the people of Belarus" and "Belarusian nation" (not to be confused with nationality).

If we try to immediately give a short, general description of the population of the Republic of Belarus, we can say the following: the Belarusian nation is aging, with a high number of pensioners and a low birth rate, relatively educated, living mainly in cities, less than half employed in the sphere of material production. According to these relative signs, the inhabitants of Belarus differ little from the population of neighboring states.

Almost 100% literacy of the population older than 10 years is ensured in Belarus. About 18% of citizens have a higher education, another 26% have a specialized secondary education.

The last population census in the Republic took place in 2010. It became the starting point for further statistical research. Earlier data were based to a large extent on the results of the Soviet period censuses and operational information. However, for the analysis and forecast of social changes, it is not absolute accuracy that is more important (even government sources often give inconsistent data), but an understanding of general trends.

The largest regions of Belarus by population in 2019 are:

Population by regions and Minsk city (at the beginning of the year; thousand people)

Republic of Belarus
Regions and Minsk:
Brest
Vitebsk
Gomel
Grodno
Mogilevskaya

There are various approaches and methods for studying and classifying the population. Probably the most informative and adequate to the current state of affairs will be an analysis of the structure of society in connection with the economic situation. Of course, the citizens of the Republic of Belarus have their own cultural characteristics, religious affiliation, political views, tastes, etc. However, economic aspects are still determining the behavior of modern Belarusians in the outside world. For the majority, enterprises and jobs remain the organizing principle.

Proceeding from this, we will consider, first of all, the age and sex structure of society, and its changes. Here, the ratio of workers and dependents, at the moment and in the future, is of particular importance. As a result, it will be possible to assess the ability to work and the degree of economic independence of society.

In the past half century, one could observe the following dynamics of changes in the demographic situation:

Number and natural increase of the population: (at the beginning of the year; thousand people)

Population
including:
Total aged:
younger than able-bodied (0-15)
able-bodied
older than able-bodied
Share in the total population, percent
urban
rural
Natural increase, decrease (-) of the population, thousand people

1) Until 2017, men aged 16-59 and women aged 16-54 were included in the working-age population. Starting from the beginning of 2018, the working-age population includes men and women aged 16 years to the generally established retirement age.

Statistical data in the distribution of urban and rural population looks like this:

Number of urban and rural population by regions and Minsk city (at the beginning of the year; thousand people)

	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Urban population
Republic of Belarus
Regions and Minsk:
Brest
Vitebsk
Gomel
Grodno
Mogilevskaya
Rural population
Republic of Belarus
Regions and Minsk:
Brest
Vitebsk
Gomel
Grodno
Mogilevskaya

It follows from this that in 2019 there was a general decrease in the population of Belarus compared to 2015 by 5.7 thousand people or 0.47%.

Three important social trends are clearly visible in the above statistics.

Over the past decades, the population has moved from the countryside to the cities; the birth rate was declining; mortality increased. This combination of fertility and mortality, in the absence of wars and other cataclysms, means an increase in the number of elderly people in the general population. This, in turn, leads to the aging of the nation and gives rise to new problems, in particular.

One of these problems is increasingly referred to as the increase in the number of pensioners relative to the number of employees.

Based on studies in different states, several coefficients have been derived that characterize the demographic situation in terms of the provision of society with labor resources:

• Child load (replacement) ratio - the ratio of the number of young people to the number of able-bodied people at the moment. In modern Belarus, the ratio is about 28%;
• The pension burden coefficient is the ratio of the number of pensioners and workers. Now in the Republic there are 61 pensioners for every 100 employees.

The last two ratios make the economic outlook very bleak. It is obvious that every year some of the workers will move into the category of pensioners. However, there will be no one to take their place in the economic system.

Thus, the issue of increase will have to be considered not from the point of view of social justice, but as an inevitable result of the demographic trends of recent decades.

Another important characteristic of the social system is the distribution of income by population groups and regions of the country. The capital significantly outperforms the provinces in terms of wealth. The regions differ little from each other. A general pattern can be considered a slight decrease in income as the number of inhabitants in a settlement decreases.

It is impossible not to mention that the real incomes of citizens can significantly exceed the declared ones. There are several reasons for this, one of which is a significant (but not precisely defined) number of our compatriots working abroad, as a rule, without the required registration.

The next most important classifier for the economic system will be the distribution of the working population by type of economic activity. According to the National Statistical Committee, the situation can be represented as follows:

Employed population by type of economic activity (percentage of total)

Employed in the economy - total
including:
agriculture, forestry and fisheries
industry
mining industry
manufacturing industry
supply of electricity, gas, steam, hot water and air conditioned
water supply; collection, treatment and disposal of waste, activities for the elimination of pollution
construction
wholesale and retail trade; car repair and motorcycles
transport activities, warehousing, postal and courier activities
temporary accommodation and food services
information and communication

It is obvious that only the first three categories from those given in the table are engaged in the production of material goods. Almost the entire export potential of the country is concentrated in these industries. Looking at the situation from this point of view, one can come to the conclusion that 42% of the economically active population or one and a half million workers “feed” the nine millionth republic. Such a ratio would be acceptable for a state with high labor productivity, or a powerful financial sector, or reserves of highly liquid natural resources.

However, for modern Belarus, the current situation is close to critical.

From November 5 to November 30, 2018, the Republic will host the first stage of the 2020 round of the population census of the Republic of Belarus in order to compile lists of houses and premises in them in cities, urban-type settlements and large rural settlements. Employees of organizations operating the housing stock and (or) providing housing and communal services are involved as registrars. Thus, 187 people were involved in the Gomel region, 181 in Minsk, 164 in Brest, 158 in Vitebsk, 151 in Mogilev, 116 in Grodno, and 44 in Minsk. Registrars survey all buildings, both existing and under construction, that are or may be inhabited by the population at the time of the October 2019 census, as well as non-residential buildings occupied by organizations.

In recent years, all we hear is that the number of Belarusians should be increased. The government keeps coming up with social benefits for large families. The President is of the same opinion. Asks to give birth even more.

“Belarus can feed 20 million people, and our main task, which not we, but our children must solve, is 15 million people,” Lukashenka said back in August last year.

And it seems like the last few years, due to the natural birth rate and migration flows from Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan, the results have been quite good ...

In the meantime, the UN released the report "World Population Prospects" with a bitter forecast for the Belarusians.

If in 2017 there were 9 million 468 thousand people in the country, then, according to UN experts, by 2030 there will already be 9 million 163 thousand people, and by 2050 there will be only 8 million 571 thousand people left.

By the way, Bulgaria, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Moldova, Romania, Serbia and Ukraine are on the list of leaders in population reduction.

At the same time, the global trend is reversed. According to data for 2017, there were 7.6 billion people on Earth, and by 2050 there will be 9.7 billion of us. Asia and Africa will try hardest. India will grow the fastest of all. In a year, this country will catch up with China, and the world leaders will have 1.45 billion inhabitants each.

“Belarusians are getting smaller, but not so critical”

But Belarusian researchers have other data.

Our forecasts do not agree with those of the UN. They rely on standard calculated indicators, but every time we use the latest up-to-date data and make new calculations, says Natalia Privalova, head of the department for demographic forecasts and the balance of labor resources of the NIEI of the Ministry of Economy. - We made a forecast until 2036. And according to these calculations, the population decline will occur insignificantly. In 2036, according to our forecasts, 9 million 425.7 thousand will live in Belarus. Yes, there will be a trend of population decline. But it is moving at a slow pace. And there is an explanation for this. We still feel the echo of the post-war demographic swing. Until the early 1990s, the number of Belarusians was constantly growing due to the previously accumulated demographic potential. In 1993, for the first time in the entire post-war period, mortality exceeded the birth rate, and depopulation began in the country, that is, a reduction in the country's population. In 2000, the number of deaths exceeded the number of births by 1.5 times.

The baby boom had to wait 15 years. In 2015, 119 thousand children were born. This birth rate has not been seen since 1994.

But it must be taken into account that the period of reduction in the number of women of reproductive age (15-49 years old) has already begun, including the most active - 20-29 years old, who account for almost 60% of all births, - continues Natalia Privalova. - This is the same generation born in the 90s. No matter how much the state encourages, but a small number of women cannot give birth to as many children as the previous large generation.

And yet, according to the expert, everything is not so sad. In Belarus, life expectancy is growing, infant mortality is decreasing, the number of women aged 30-39 is increasing, who account for more than 30% of all second and third births…

BY THE WAY

The smallest population decline (from 1999 to 2016) is in the Brest (6.6%) and Gomel (7.9%) regions. In other regions, the reduction is on average 10%.

The biggest demographic loss is in the Vitebsk region.

20% of the population of Belarus live in Minsk (in 1999 - 16%) and every fifth young person.

Population of Belarus in 1950 - 2017:

* The value is calculated by linear interpolation, taking into account the two closest values ​​\u200b\u200bto each other (Date-> population) (unofficial).
** Migration growth is included in the calculation of birth rate growth: Birth rate = Population + Mortality.
*** We do not have population figures prior to 1950. The figures shown are based on an approximate calculation using the function: population in 1900 = 70% of population in 1950.
United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). World Demographic Prospects: A 2015 Revision. These estimates and forecasts were made according to the medium-term birth rate option. Used with permission from the United Nations. Downloaded: 2015-11-15 (un.org)
City density map created from population.city using data provided to us by 1km.net. Each circle represents a city with a population of over 5000. Link
The population density map was created according to the instructions of daysleeperrr on reddig. Link1 . Data source: Gridded Population of the World (GPW), 3rd online edition in Socioeconomic Data and Applications (SEDAC) at Columbia University.

The Republic of Belarus in terms of population occupies 92nd place in the world, 17th place among European countries,
6th place among the CIS countries. Population of the Republic of Belarus (as of January 1; thousand people)

At the beginning of 2016, 5 million 77 thousand women and 4 million 421 thousand men lived in the republic.

There were 1,149 women per 1,000 men, including 1,167 women in urban areas and 1,086 women in rural areas.

Inhabitants of the republic over the past 5 years has increased for 3.5 years and made in 2015 73.9 years old.

Life expectancy
the entire population		urban population		rural population

Distribution of the population on the territory of Belarus
(at the beginning of 2016; thousand people)

The city of Minsk is the most numerous in terms of the number of inhabitants, it is home to 1 million 960 thousand people, or every fifth inhabitant of the republic (20.6%).

Among the regions, the Gomel region is the most populated, where almost every seventh inhabitant of the country lives.

Three quarters of the population of Belarus are city dwellers.

The global trend of urbanization is also characteristic of modern Belarus. Three quarters of the population of Belarus are city dwellers. At the beginning of this year, the urban population amounted to 7 million 370 thousand people.

About 70% of the urban population is concentrated in large cities with a population of 100,000 or more. This is the city of Minsk, all regional centers, as well as Bobruisk, Baranovichi, Borisov, Pinsk, Orsha, Mozyr, Soligorsk, Novopolotsk, Lida.

Average age of the population of Belarus
(at the beginning of 2016; years)

The average age of the population of Belarus, since 1990, has increased by 5 years and is 40.1 years (men - 37.3 years, women - 42.5 years).

The average age of a city dweller, since 1990, has increased by 6.8 years and amounted to 38.8 years. During this period, the villager matured by 3.2 years and his average age was 44.5 years.

Vitebsk region is the oldest region. The average age of the region's population is 41.5 years. The youngest region is Minsk, where the average age of the population is 38.3 years.

The Republic of Belarus is a state with a sharp predominance of one nation, but with more or less significant national minorities, a state. According to the 2009 census, representatives of about 130 nationalities live here. 7,957,252 people consider themselves Belarusians - this is 83.7% of the population. The share of other nationalities living on the territory of Belarus is 16.3%, respectively. The most numerous of them are Russians 8.3%, Poles 3.1%, Ukrainians 1.7%. Jews, Armenians, Tatars, Gypsies, Azerbaijanis and Lithuanians each make up 0.1% of the total population (Table 2.1).

Table 2.1. National composition of the population of the Republic of Belarus, 2009

Total, person	Including	Urban population, %	Rural population, %	To the total number population, %
All population
Belarusians
Ukrainians
Azerbaijanis

Belarus is not an exception among most European countries; in the age structure, there is a clear predominance of women in almost all nationalities. Only among the Armenians and Azerbaijanis do men significantly predominate, this is due to their increase due to labor immigration.

Belarus has a high level of urbanization, it is 74%. 73% of Belarusians live in cities, and the dominance of the urban population is observed among all the main nationalities of the republic.

It should be noted that, despite the fact that the total population of Belarus has been constantly decreasing since 1994, the absolute number of Belarusians increased by 5.7% over the 1990s (Table 2.2). However, then, in the first decade of the 21st century, their number decreased by 3.2%.

In general, for the period from 1989 to 2009. the population of Belarusian nationality increased, although only by 0.7% (52.7 thousand people). The share of Belarusians in the entire population increased constantly: from 77.9% in 1989 to 81.2% in 1999 and up to 83.7% in 2009. This happened due to the active repatriation of Belarusians from other republics of the former USSR back to Belarus.

Table 2.2. Change in the national composition of the population for the period 1989-2009.

At present, the proportion of Belarusians living in other CIS and Baltic countries has somewhat decreased, since in the 1990s, after the collapse of the USSR, Belarusians were repatriated to Belarus from almost all former republics. The largest balance of migration was noted from Russia, the Baltic countries, Kazakhstan, i.е. of those republics in which the largest number of Belarusians lived. The maximum influx of population to Belarus from almost all states of the former USSR occurred in 1992; in subsequent years, the intensity of the influx of population fell sharply.

The re-emigration of Belarusians is caused by a number of reasons. The main ones are the collapse of the USSR and related processes, as well as the intensification of competition in the labor markets with the population of titular nationalities, the emergence of national conflicts in a number of republics of the former USSR. In total, in the years after the 1989 census, more than 15% of all Belarusians who lived outside the Republic of Belarus on the territory of the former USSR returned to the republic.

Rice. 2.1. Dynamics of the number of main nationalities in the Republic of Belarus (1989 - 2009)

As noted above, of the non-indigenous people in the republic, most of all are Russians. In 1999, their number was greater than in 2009 and amounted to 1141.7 thousand people, and in 1989 - 1342.1 thousand people. (Fig. 2.1). That is, their numbers have been steadily decreasing since 1989. In 2009, in Belarus, 200.4 thousand people less classified themselves as Russian nationality than according to the 1989 census. It should be noted that the number and share of the Russian population in Belarus and Belarusians in Russia in The 80s grew quite rapidly. This was due to the active exchange of qualified personnel between the republics in the postwar years in order to accelerate the development of productive forces and the development of new industries, new territories. Russians in Belarus mostly live in cities and in the eastern border rural areas of the republic. The decrease in the number of Russians in the 1990s is mainly due to the migration outflow of the Russian population due to the collapse of the USSR, and also to the fact that part of the population, especially those born in mixed marriages, more actively identified themselves as indigenous Belarusian nationality during the census.

The third largest national group in Belarus are the Poles. The number of people who identify themselves as Polish nationality is constantly decreasing on the territory of the republic. According to the 1999 census, 395.7 thousand people of Polish nationality lived in the country, and in 1989 417.7 thousand people. Accordingly, the share of Poles in the total population also decreases. According to the 1989 census, their share was 4.1%, and according to the 2009 census - 3.1%. This happened mainly due to their moving to relatives in Poland.

The number of Ukrainians in comparison with 1989 decreased by 132.3 thousand, although in previous years it was constantly growing. The share of Ukrainians in the population of Belarus decreased from 2.9% to 1.7%. Ukrainians live both in the countryside, in areas adjacent to the border, and in the cities of Belarus.

In addition to the representatives of the named nationalities, the number of each of which exceeds 100 thousand people. and accounts for more than 1% of the total population, representatives of smaller national groups live in Belarus. The most numerous of them are Jews. Jews remain the fifth largest national group in Belarus, but their number has significantly decreased over the years after the 1989 census (by 99.1 thousand people) and amounted to only 12.9 thousand people (0.1% of the total population). In 1989, it numbered 112.0 thousand people and accounted for 1.1% of the total population. According to the 1939 census, 375.1 thousand Jews lived in Eastern Belarus alone, 6.7% of the total population. They constituted the second largest national group. The reduction in the number and proportion of people of Jewish nationality on the territory of the republic is caused by a number of reasons: increased migration after the elimination of the "Pale of Settlement" in the early years of Soviet power, losses during the Great Patriotic War in 1941-1945, the spread of mixed marriages, departure to large cities of Russia and Ukraine. In the 90s. the number of this national group has been significantly reduced due to intensive travel outside the CIS and Baltic countries. For 1989-1999 In Belarus, more than 130 thousand people received permission to travel outside the CIS and Baltic countries. Among them, a significant proportion were persons of Jewish nationality, this proportion was especially large among those leaving in 1989-1995. In recent years, the decrease in this national group has been significantly affected by the natural decline in the population, since young people left the republic to a greater extent, and mostly people of older generations remained. Already according to the 1999 census, more than half of all persons of Jewish nationality living in Belarus were of retirement age.

Representatives of smaller national population groups living on the territory of Belarus, but numbering more than 5 thousand people each, include Armenians and Tatars, gypsies, Azerbaijanis and Lithuanians.

The number of Armenians living on the territory of the republic increased rapidly in the second half of the 20th century. Compared with the data of the 1959 census, as of the date of the 1999 census, it increased by about five times and amounted to 10.2 thousand people. The number of Armenians grew especially actively in the 1990s. In the last decade, the number and proportion of Armenians in Belarus has somewhat decreased.

Tatars have been living on the territory of the republic for several generations. Their number is constantly decreasing. According to the 2009 census, it was 7.3 thousand people, against 10.1 thousand people. in 1999 and 12.6 thousand in 1989

Gypsies also traditionally live in the country. Lithuanians live mainly along the border with Lithuania. In the 1990s, the number of Azerbaijanis increased significantly, but after the 1999 census. she shrunk again. Part of the Azerbaijanis returned back to Azerbaijan.

In addition to persons of these nationalities, Germans, Moldavians, Georgians, Latvians, Chuvashs, Mordvins, Uzbeks, Kazakhs live on the territory of Belarus.

The rest of the peoples living on the date of the 2009 census on the territory of Belarus are small (less than 1 thousand).