Rosneft completed the deal of the year by absorbing TNK-BP. Why is Rosneft buying TNK-BP Which oil and gas company does TNK own?

March 21, purchasing shares of the Russian consortium AAR and British BP. Rosneft paid $27.73 billion for AAR shares. Rosneft bought BP's share for $16.65 billion and 12.84% of its securities.

To finance the acquisitions, Rosneft attracted loans from foreign banks for $31 billion, entered into pre-export financing deals for $10 billion with oil traders Glencore and Vitol, and also placed bonds for $3 billion, RBC daily reports.

As a result of the signed agreements, the British company BP became the largest private shareholder of Rosneft with a share of 19.75%. According to the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin, following the signing of the deal, BP, through the board of directors, will participate in shaping the company's strategy.

He also said that the united company will produce 206 million tons of oil and 47 billion cubic meters in 2013. m of gas. This is almost twice as much as the production of its closest competitor, the American ExxonMobil.

The integration process between TNK-BP and Rosneft will take about a year. TNK-BP Chief Financial Officer Jonathan Muir, Executive Vice President Mikhail Slobodin, as well as former co-owners of the company German Khan and Viktor Vekselberg will not work in the new company, RBC reported.

The sale of TNK-BP was the result of a shareholder conflict that had lasted for the past five years. Along with disputes over development strategy, AAR and BP accused each other of violating the shareholders' agreement. After several years of conflict, the British company put its stake up for sale in June last year. AAR immediately showed interest in the stake, but then it became known that Rosneft was also ready to purchase BP shares. AAR was unable to attract a loan to complete the transaction due to exclusive agreements between banks and the state-owned company.

Now, as the London newspaper reports, after BP said “hello” to Rosneft and “bye” to the oligarchs from AAR, one of the co-owners of AAR, Mikhail Fridman, will invest a “significant part” of the funds in the oil and gas industry - $14 billion received by him from the sale of a 25% stake in TNK-BP.

Friedman, according to the publication, plans to establish an investment structure that will invest in oil, gas and telecommunications companies in Russia, North and South America, Asia and Africa.

“Through Alfa Group, his financial and industrial consortium, he will invest funds through offices in London, New York and Moscow,” the British publication reported.

The investment company will “focus on opportunities” in exploration and production, field maintenance and transportation of raw materials, said Stan Polovets, executive director of the Alfa-led consortium of Russian shareholders AAR, which sold a 50% stake in TNK-BP to Rosneft.

Rosneft has entered into agreements with the shareholders of TNK-BP - British BP and the Russian consortium Alfa Access-Renova (AAR) - to buy out 100% of this company, the head of Rosneft said. Igor Sechin at a meeting with the president Vladimir Putin. “At the end of last week and the beginning of this week, we completed the main negotiations, and I can report that an agreement was signed to buy out BP’s share (in TNK-BP) from Rosneft,” he said. “We were actively working with the private shareholder - AAR, and a similar agreement was reached on the principles for acquiring their share,” he said.

The head of Rosneft estimated the cost of the transaction to purchase 100% of TNK-BP at $61 billion. “Taking into account the shares of Rosneftegaz, this transaction will require $61 billion, and it will become the third largest transaction in the world,” Igor Sechin told the country’s president and added that the price of Rosneft shares for the purposes of the transaction was named and approved in the agreement at $8 per share. Vladimir Putin called the price of the deal good. “The price is good, even with a small premium,” he noted.

As noted in a press release from the Russian oil company, in connection with the proposed transaction, BP made an offer to purchase an additional 600 million shares of NK Rosneft, representing a 5.66% stake in Rosneft, from its parent company OJSC Rosneftegaz at the price $8.00 per share. Rosneftegaz can accept this proposal until December 3, 2012. Rosneft and BP have entered into a 90-day period of exclusive negotiations with a view to signing a definitive purchase and sale agreement for TNK-BP. “Signing of the final documentation will be possible after receiving approval for the sale of 600 million ordinary shares of Rosneft by Rosneftegaz from the Russian government, as well as final approval of the transaction with TNK-BP by the boards of directors of Rosneft and BP. In addition, completion of both transactions will be subject to the satisfaction of other conditions, including regulatory and other approvals, and are expected to occur simultaneously in the first half of 2013, the company said.

Upon completion of these transactions, BP will own 19.75% of Rosneft shares, including BP's existing 1.25% stake. According to the legislation of the Russian Federation, this ownership stake will give BP the right to appoint two of the nine members to the board of directors of Rosneft.

Rosneft also agreed on the main terms of the deal with the AAR consortium (Alfa-Access Industries-Renova) to acquire AAR’s 50% stake in TNK-BP for cash in the amount of $28 billion, subject to reaching agreement on binding documents, obtaining corporate and regulatory approvals and fulfillment of certain other conditions. Moreover, the deal with AAR is completely independent from the deal with BP.

Rosneft intends to finance the cash component of the transaction using existing cash on Rosneft's balance sheet and new borrowings.

The purchase of a 50 percent stake in TNK-BP from a British company would have a favorable impact on the activities of Rosneft, according to Investcafe analysts. Gregory Birg And Yulia Voitovich. “Due to the fact that TNK-BP has an extensive package of greenfield projects, Rosneft will be able to significantly increase production growth rates and revenue. In addition, the deal with BP will help strengthen cooperation between the companies, which will also have a positive impact on Rosneft's activities in the future, they say. - Thanks to the purchase of 100% of TNK-BP, Rosneft will own about 40% of all production assets in the Russian Federation. However, there are certain disadvantages to buying out all of TNK-BP for Rosneft. Let us recall that to finance the purchase of a 50% stake in TNK-BP, Rosneft planned to raise about $15 billion from the debt markets. The purchase of 100% of TNK-BP shares will require Rosneft to attract additional financing. This will significantly increase the debt burden and thus may lead to a revision of Rosneft’s debt rating.”

Analysts say such a large-scale consolidation in the oil and gas industry could lead to an escalation of the government standoff, as an increase in the state's share in the sector runs counter to plans to implement an extensive privatization program. However, Russian authorities recently announced that the privatization of Rosneft will take place within the previously stated time frame. “Thus, monopolization on the Russian oil market will not happen in the future,” analysts at Investcafe believe.

This is definitely a successful deal for BP, says the head of the investment operations department of Lanta Bank. Oleg Poddymnikov. “Firstly, the company managed to sell the asset at a premium of almost 40% to the market. Secondly, get out of the rather problematic alliance with AAR. In addition, BP receives a significant stake in a state-owned company, which in the future may gain control over the entire TNK-BP, he lists. - For Rosneft there are also advantages in this deal. The company will increase oil reserves by 27.66%, to 18.238 billion barrels. Thus, the reserves will be more than double those of Gazprom and will be 49.15% greater than ExxonMobil. In the event of further consolidation of 100% of TNK-BP shares, reserves will increase by 55% and reach 22.191 billion barrels.”

Of course, from the point of view of management efficiency, state-owned companies do not show the best results, the analyst notes. “On the other hand, it cannot be said that the government is trying to completely get rid of private shareholders in the oil industry. At least, plans for further privatization of the state stake in Rosneft in 2013–2014 remain in force, he says. - We can rather talk about a change in the category of investors. Instead of several large financial industrial groups, a larger number of foreign and Russian portfolio investors will become shareholders. At the same time, the state receives investment and maintains strategic control over the industry. Investors, in turn, may in the future receive “oil Gazprom.”

Information about the deal was expected, now Rosneft will become the leader among public companies in terms of production volume, agrees the director of the analytical department of the Alpari company Alexander Razuvaev. “There is an additional advantage for minority shareholders: now Rosneft’s dividends will always be high, which is why they have always loved tanker shares,” he says. - However, I think this is not the last deal, Surgutneftegaz is definitely the next stop, this is not only 60 million tons of oil per year, it is also more than 30 billion dollars in cash. Rosneft will probably need it to reduce its debt burden. The deal will also likely include the redemption of Surgut's treasury securities, which the market estimates amount to up to 90% of ordinary shares. The stake in Slavneft will probably also be sold at a high price to Gazprom to reduce Rosneft’s debt burden.”
According to the analyst, the deal fully fits into Igor Sechin’s line on resource nationalism. “And the expensive valuation reflects the real value of Russian oil and gas assets, which is undervalued on the stock exchange due to the risks of the eurozone,” he says. “I think that after Surgut, the target for takeover will be Zarubezhneft, with a very low probability of Transneft, the remaining companies will remain independent.”

Head of the Department of Assessment and Investment Design, CJSC "MEF-audit" Dmitry Trofimov notes that this transaction is of interest to Rosneft in exactly the format as it is planned. “The exit of only the British from TNK-BP could create certain problems for the subsequent development of this company, since among the shareholders there remained a conflicting party for the British, which could negate the synergistic effect of the transaction for both companies. By purchasing both stakes, Rosneft minimizes its management risks,” he argues. - Of course, the opportunity to become the world's largest company in terms of reserves and production is very attractive, which, of course, should have a positive impact on the company's capitalization. But it is also important that in addition to money, BP receives shares in Rosneft and seats on the board of directors. And at the same time, it is very important that in addition to joint projects and technologies, BP will be able to bring elements of Western corporate culture to Rosneft.”

The settlement of Rosneft shares with BP, on the one hand, brings private capital into Rosneft itself, and on the other hand, TNK-BP becomes a company with state participation, the analyst notes. “The trend towards privatization at maximum prices continues, without losing state control over strategic assets,” he says. - FAS stated that the agency’s decision on the application will depend on the nature of the transaction, including the size of the package. Considering the “strategic nature” of the decisions made, there is no doubt that the “correct” design will be found, especially since the head of Rosneft stated that “the deal will not affect the reserves and the market so much that one can talk about monopolism.” In general, the vector for consolidation remains the same, since “easy” resources are being depleted, and hard-to-recover reserves require expensive technologies.”

Of course, the stated transaction amount of $61 billion is impressive, notes an analyst at IFC Solid. Dmitry Lukashov. “The market capitalization of TNK-BP is only $38 billion. However, I believe that Rosneft did the right thing by taking advantage of the good opportunity to acquire such an attractive asset in its entirety,” he is confident. - Theoretically, Rosneft may subsequently announce an offer to the remaining minority shareholders at the price of the transaction with the main shareholders. In this case, TNK-BP shares may be of interest for the purpose of speculative purchase for small investors. According to my calculations, after the purchase of TNK-BP, Rosneft's share will be 37% in all-Russian oil production and a third in its refining. I believe that monopolization of the domestic market will not happen. It should be noted that less than half of the petroleum products produced are sold in Russia, and the rest is exported. If necessary, oil companies can slightly reduce foreign supplies and easily saturate the domestic market.”

The deal looks like a “puzzle assembled” for all its participants, says Advance Capital partner Karen Dashyan. “The decision on a strategic alliance between BP and Rosneft was made a long time ago, and the shareholder conflict in TNK-BP has reached its climax. At the same time, it is obvious that for a private Russian oil company, growth opportunities in the oil and gas sector of the Russian Federation are extremely limited. At the same time, it should be noted that the terms of the upcoming transaction are fairly fair for all parties, and if in this configuration it is possible to establish effective corporate governance, then the merged company will clearly receive high-quality impulses for growth in the Russian Federation and internationally, he argues. - Today, the landscape in the oil industry is such that it is difficult to develop in new growth areas, such as the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, Eastern Siberia, and on the shelf, without government participation. All projects are in one way or another connected with the need to apply preferential tax regimes due to significant investments in geology and infrastructure, on the one hand, and the use of complex international modern and expensive technologies for their development, on the other. Thus, it is obvious that the alliance of state-owned companies and international vertically integrated oil companies is most optimal in the existing, partly “manual” mode of industry management.”

Whether this deal is successful or not, we will only know when the complete merger of the two companies is completed, which may take at least a year, or even more, notes the leading expert of Finam Management Management Company. Dmitry Baranov. “And after that, the merged company will have to operate for at least a year to prove its effectiveness, despite the fact that it has seriously increased in size. And only then will it be possible to evaluate the effectiveness of its activities in a new capacity and the success of the transaction that took place in 2012,” he says. - In general, judging by the way events developed, it seems that each of the parties was quite tired of negotiating and sought to quickly come to some kind of decision. That is, most likely, each of the parties made a certain compromise in order for the deal to be completed in the near future. Perhaps, over time, the details of these negotiations will become known, and we will find out who agreed to what compromises.”

According to the analyst, a version has come to fruition that previously seemed the most fantastic, although it had the right to exist. “Namely, the version that the scheme of the deal is changing and Rosneft will be BP’s new partner in TNK-BP, that is, BP will not leave the company. BP really is not leaving the company, but will become a partner of Rosneft,” he notes. - In addition, the assumption that this deal is not the beginning of the process of nationalization of the entire industry turned out to be correct. High-ranking officials have already confirmed that the privatization of part of Rosneft is planned next year, and in addition, the state is not acquiring other vertically integrated oil companies in one form or another and has not announced anything similar.”

Now it is much more important to see, Dmitry Baranov believes, how this deal will go, how successfully the merger of two companies will be completed, each of which has different development strategies, different business standards, different mining and production assets. “After all, they all have to be combined into a single working mechanism, and this is a very, very difficult task,” he says. “It is possible that the merger procedure will drag on for several years and during its implementation, part of the assets may be sold, and it is not necessary that these will be the assets of TNK-BP; it is possible that these may also be the assets of Rosneft.”

This is what I wrote about five years ago in this book: “We should admire the resilience of the proud Britons. They really want to stay on our oil and gas market, they really want to influence it, and through this influence Russia’s foreign policy. But it won't work. The difficulties for TNK-BP did not end there. And sooner or later, the British oil monopoly will be squeezed out of Russia, and its oil assets will be sold to a Russian company. “This is bad for us, bad for the company and, of course, very bad for Russia,” Peter Sutherland, chairman of the board of the British oil giant, assesses the developing events. But the author of this book thinks that, on the contrary, it’s good. Very good. Is control over the main resource of the planet, over the main resource of one’s country in the hands of its government, good or bad? Answer this question yourself."

And finally the British are being squeezed out of TNK-BP. They squeeze out gently, Putin-style. But persistently and steadily. The private company TNK-BP is being completely bought out from its shareholders by the state company Rosneft.

“Earlier today it became known that the Rosneft oil company is purchasing 100% of TNK-BP shares from the AAR consortium and the British oil company BP. The signing of the corresponding agreement was announced by the head of Rosneft, Igor Sechin. "

Does this mean that control over a large part of our mineral resources is returning to the hands of the Russian state? Yes it is.

Let's understand the confusing scheme of buying and selling oil assets.

First, let's make sure that Rosneft is really a state company.

We go to the company’s website and read:

Share capital structure

Composition of shareholders (shareholders) of OJSC NK Rosneft, owning more than 1% of the Company’s authorized capital as of October 1, 2012.

1. 75,16% belongs to , which is 100% federal property.

2. More 9,53% belongs to LLC RN-Razvitie, which in turn belongs to LLC RN-Trade, whose participants are OJSC NK Rosneft (99.9999%) and LLC Neft-Aktiv (0.0001%), at 100% controlled by OJSC NK Rosneft. That is, Rosneft itself controls the company, which owns 9.53% of its shares. This means that these interests belong to the state.

3. The company itself, OJSC NK Rosneft, has on its balance sheet, that is, it owns 3,04% "yourself."

This is where state participation ends. 10,19% which belong to Sberbank cannot be classified as state assets, since the owners of the controlling stake in Sberbank are. We are also not interested in other individuals and legal entities now.

So: 75.16% + 9.53% +3.04% = 87.73% of Rosneft belongs to the state.

Now let’s look at the conditions under which our British “friends” agreed to give TNK-BP shares to Rosneft.

". Upon completion, BP will receive a package of 18.5% of Rosneft shares and $12.3 billion in cash. Taking into account BP’s already existing 1.25% stake in Rosneft, BP’s share in the share capital of the Russian company will be 19.75%.”

So, in order for the British to lose 50% of the shares of the third largest oil company in Russia, we give them 18.5% of Rosneft.

As a result, control remains completely in the hands of Russia: we will have 69.23%, British Petroleum -19.75%.

Of course, we would like our British partners to have a share in the subsoil of Russia equal to zero point zero. But politics is the art of the possible. Not the art of wishful thinking. The British are being removed from control over the subsoil, giving them only a piece of the oil pie. They are removing it after eight years of FIGHTING with them for it!

(Just type “TNK-BP” and the word “problems” into a search engine and you will read how many difficulties and accidents had to be done to “convince” BP to give up TNK-BP shares).

Now the conclusions that arise from all of the above.

No more privatization of Rosneft should take place. Otherwise, you could lose control of this important company. Talk about privatization, smile, but put it off all the time and never carry it out.
The strategic line of the Russian leadership to gain full sovereignty is complete control over Russian mineral resources. But first - the complete rearmament of the army and navy, the development of a new state patriotic ideology. And only then to the negotiating table with our British “friends” - with new trump cards.
To demand today to “drive the British out of our oil industry with a filthy broom” is a complete lack of an adequate assessment of today’s geopolitical reality. This is the same as demanding from Stalin in August 1939 to send the Third Reich away, instead of signing a Non-Aggression Pact with it. Only Svanidzes are capable of this...

While “they” are stronger, we need to negotiate.

This is the main art of a politician and head of state.

State-owned Rosneft today announced the completion of the project announced in October 2012. transactions to purchase from the British BP and the Russian consortium AAR the TNK-BP company, the third largest producer in Russia. The deal, which BP CEO Robert Dudley described as “an interesting adventure,” was closed earlier than expected: it was originally planned to be completed by the end of the first half of this year. Rosneft paid for its purchase primarily with borrowed money, which it had previously managed to attract on favorable terms, and shares, as a result of which BP increased its stake in the Russian oil company to 19.75%. Experts call the deal brilliant for Rosneft and one of the best in the history of the Russian oil sector. They assess the growth potential of Rosneft's capitalization as very high, emphasizing that the level of corporate governance in it can improve with an increase in the share of British BP in the Russian oil company...

The results of the deal...

Unofficial information that the deal could be closed today appeared this morning. As a result, as Rosneft reported, the share repurchase was completed at 15:53 ​​Moscow time. The deal was carried out simultaneously in several places on Earth (Caribbean Islands, Cyprus, Europe), including offshore zones. Control over the TNK-BP company was completely transferred to Rosneft.

Rosneft paid $27.73 billion to the Russian shareholders of TNK-BP, which owned 50% of the company - the consortium of Alfa Group, Access Industries and Renova Group (AAR). AAR co-owner Mikhail Fridman has already announced that most of this money will remain in Russia. At the same time, Stan Polovets, chief managing director of AAR, noted that “the deal to sell a stake in TNK-BP opens up opportunities for participation in new large-scale projects in the Russian Federation and abroad.”

As for BP, the former owner of the remaining 50% of the Russian-British joint venture, it received 12.84% of Rosneft shares and $16.65 billion in cash (including dividends of $0.71 billion received by BP in December 2012, the total amount reached the previously agreed upon - $17.12 billion). At the same time, BP allocated $4.87 billion to purchase a 5.66% stake in Rosneft from Rosneftegaz OJSC. As a result of all these transactions, BP received $12.48 billion and, taking into account the 1.25% of Rosneft shares it already owned, BP became the owner of 19.75% of the shares of Rosneft Oil Company OJSC.

It also became known that the head of R. Dudley joined the TNK-BP integration committee, headed by the president of the Russian state oil company Igor Sechin. As previously reported, according to the order of the Russian government, R. Dudley was also nominated to the board of directors of Rosneft as a representative of the state...

Rosneft President Igor Sechin will personally take charge of the management of TNK-BP, Interfax reports. He himself answered a question from journalists about this. “This is not an M&A deal, this is the world's largest economic acquisition deal. Whoever bought it controls it,” commented Igor Sechin...

A wall behind Rosneft...

Commenting on the deal, I. Sechin emphasized that he “welcomes BP as a shareholder of Rosneft, which, through representation on the board of directors, will participate in shaping the company’s strategy.” “We hope that BP’s extensive experience will allow us to maximize the synergistic effect in a number of areas during integration,” said I. Sechin. He expressed his conviction that the transition to a new level of relations will bring benefits not only to Rosneft and its shareholders, but also to the Russian oil industry as a whole.

In turn, R. Dudley expressed the opinion that today has become “historic for BP in Russia.” He emphasized that BP has been operating in the Russian Federation for more than twenty years, and over the past ten years has been the largest foreign investor in Russia through its participation in TNK-BP. “We are committed to building on this success with today’s transaction, which increases our stake in Rosneft and provides us with an excellent opportunity to build new partnerships with Russia’s largest oil company,” said R. Dudley.

We also note that I. Sechin and R. Dudley took part in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who congratulated the participants in the deal on its completion and wished them success. “The deal was large, complex, multifaceted, very large in scope. This, as I understand it, is the largest direct purchase and sale transaction in the global economy today,” V. Putin noted. He called BP's acquisition of Rosneft shares "a very important step in the privatization of state property."

R. Dudley, responding to V. Putin, noted that the sale of a stake in TNK-BP was “a very interesting adventure.” “We really enjoyed it and had a great time working with Igor Ivanovich (Sechin) and the entire Rosneft team,” emphasized R. Dudley. “We are very glad that we will become the second largest shareholder of Rosneft, we are very supportive, we stand behind this company, we came seriously and for a long time, and if suddenly any rumors circulate that we want to sell shares, - “Don’t believe these rumors, please,” the head of BP assured the Russian president.

Skydiving…

Immediately after the announcement that the sale of TNK-BP was completed, a number of key top managers announced their departure from the company. In particular, its former co-owners German Khan and Viktor Vekselberg left the company. TNK-BP Chief Financial Officer Jonathan Muir and Executive Vice President Mikhail Slobodin also announced their dismissal from TNK-BP. Previously, unofficial information appeared that the top management of TNK-BP, in case of dismissal, would receive “golden parachutes” in the amount of two annual salaries, but so far neither Rosneft, nor AAR, nor TNK-BP have officially commented on this.

Cheap buy...

Speaking about the terms of the deal to purchase TNK-BP, FG BCS analyst Vladislav Metnev expressed to RBC the opinion that “this is one of the best deals in the history of the Russian oil sector.” Rosneft successfully took advantage of the situation of conflict between shareholders and was able to offer a reasonable way out of the conflict situation for both AAR and BP. In turn, the structure of the deal helped BP maintain its presence in Russia, and AAR helped monetize this asset,” points out V. Metnev. Veles Capital analyst Vasily Tanurkov calls the deal “very, very profitable” for Rosneft. Rosneft bought TNK-BP with borrowed money, and very cheaply - we are talking about 3.25-3.5%. TNK-BP brings, roughly speaking, about $7-8 billion in profit per year, and they paid $56 billion for it. That is, relatively speaking, it turns out that we took the money at 3.5% and placed it at a 12-15% yield.” ,” points out V. Tanurkov.

He emphasizes that TNK-BP is one of the most efficient among Russian oil producing companies. “Its profitability has historically been at the highest levels for the industry, and production growth has continued quite well. In fact, the investment turns out to be simply brilliant,” the expert concludes.

Prospects...

According to V. Tanurkov, “from the point of view of the investment attractiveness of Rosneft for foreigners, the fact that BP has become one of the largest shareholders plays a very positive role.” “Still, the main stake belongs to the state, but since the gradual privatization of Rosneft is planned, in the future, apparently, it may turn out that BP will generally be the largest shareholder. This naturally attracts foreigners,” says V. Tanurkov. V. Metnev believes that an increase in BP’s share could lead to an increase in the level of corporate governance in Rosneft, “at least at the level of making major decisions regarding investment programs, regarding the company’s development strategy.” Regarding the possibility of further increasing BP's stake in Rosneft, he believes that “BP would like to receive a blocking stake, but it does not seem that this is one of the desired scenarios of the main shareholder of Rosneft, represented by Rosneftegaz, by the Russian authorities.” Uralsib Capital analyst Alexey Kokin believes that BP will likely receive two seats on the Rosneft board of directors. The expert also hopes that thanks to BP, Rosneft will “finally have a development strategy.” The analyst notes that by the end of the year the company may formulate its strategy together with BP.

Director of the analytical department of Alpari, Alexander Razuvaev, emphasizes that the united company will produce about 4 million barrels. per day, reserves will amount to 28 billion barrels, estimated sales volume - $160 billion, EBITDA - $32.9 billion. At the same time, I. Sechin, at a meeting with V. Putin, expressed his assessment of the prospects of the united company. “According to updated data, production in 2013 will amount to over 206 million tons of oil, gas production volumes - 47 billion cubic meters. m, processing - 95 million tons. Revenue will be 4.9 trillion rubles. (about $160 billion - RBC),” said the head of Rosneft. He estimated the possible synergistic effect from the merger of companies in the amount of up to $10 billion.

V. Tanurkov from Veles Capital finds it difficult to estimate the size of the possible synergistic effect, recalling that earlier estimates were made at the level of $3-5 billion. However, he is confident that the effect will be “very significant.” “It is clear that it will be at least due to transport and administrative costs,” the analyst points out.

At the same time, both V. Tanurkov and A. Razuvaev compare Rosneft, which has “grown up” after the purchase of TNK-BP, with Gazprom. “The new Rosneft is becoming very similar to Gazprom. The only exception is that the transportation of raw materials in Russia is still separated from production, which, from our point of view, is more correct,” points out A. Razuvaev. In his opinion, Transneft must be left independent. “The merger of two state companies (Rosneft and Transneft), from our point of view, is a very bad idea. At the same time, Rosneft is a much more transparent and efficient company than Gazprom, which means it deserves a premium in evaluation,” said A. Razuvaev.

AForex expert Narek Avakyan emphasizes that the deal will open up new opportunities for Rosneft to develop international business, since TNK-BP previously had experience in implementing international projects (in particular in the Middle East) and Rosneft’s portfolio of international orders in connection with this it can be significantly replenished. “However, every coin also has a flip side - an even greater strengthening of the oil and gas industry in Russia will increase the dependence of the federal budget on external market conditions for oil prices. Therefore, it would also not be entirely correct to judge this deal solely from an optimistic point of view,” the expert believes.

Speaking about the prospects for possible further expansion of Rosneft, A. Razuvaev from Alpari points out that “Surgutneftegaz could be its next target.” “The deal could take place in the fall and will definitely be in the interests of Rosneft and the state,” the analyst predicts.

Return to the Arctic...

In addition, V. Tanurkov from Veles-Capital and V. Metnev from BCS are unanimous in their expectations that after the TNK-BP deal, Rosneft and BP can return to plans for cooperation in the development of the Arctic shelf. Previously, the companies planned to create an alliance for these purposes, but the plans were upset due to the opposition of the Russian shareholders of TNK-BP, who insisted that BP in Russia should be with the Russian-British joint venture. They managed to defend their position in court, and now the obstacles to cooperation between Rosneft and BP in the Arctic have disappeared. True, over the past time, Rosneft has managed to conclude agreements on cooperation on the Arctic shelf with the American Exxon...

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