Upcoming State Duma elections. State Duma elections: Russians' predictions State Duma elections forecast poll

Pre-election congresses were held in the country, and the election campaign began. Well, the FBK sociological service decided to make the first poll in this political season with party ratings.

We ourselves would like to know with what numbers this campaign begins, and you will probably be interested in unbiased sociology.

Not to say that everyone is in great excitement about the upcoming elections, although 56% of citizens know for sure that there will be elections to the State Duma in the fall:

Many opinion polls traditionally show a high turnout and this one was no exception. In 2011, the official turnout was about 60%, and the real, cleared of stuffing, was probably around 50%.

Almost half of the voters have not decided who they will vote for. These "undecided" votes will be distributed among the parties, as a result, not necessarily in the same proportion as the votes of those voters who already confidently declare support for one or another party. The practice of past years shows that the result of United Russia is falling closer to the elections.

Overall, the results of our survey were quite close to the results of the last poll by the Levada Center, except that they predict very low turnout.

If we make an allowance for the difference in turnout, then all the interesting things coincide:

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia disputes the second place with the Communists;

CP balances on the brink of passing the barrier;

Non-parliamentary parties don't even come close to becoming parliamentary.

However, our survey was still on the eve of the congresses. Now we want to do another one and examine the party ratings more thoroughly, taking into account the clarity about who participates in the lists. Find out who people generally know from those who lead their parties.

Therefore, we are recruiting volunteers who will help us with this survey. As usual: with us training and strict adherence to the most advanced sociological methodology, with you - conscientious work under the supervision of experienced people.

Come, help us supply citizens with the necessary sociological data and see for yourself that they are the most honest with us.

It is with sadness that I publish the results of our latest survey. As promised, we made the Moscow poll completely identical.

For your convenience, each card has three results: federal in June, federal in July, and Moscow.

And with sadness, because Moscow gives democratic parties 15-20% of the total number of votes that they can get in the country. The result in Moscow is absolutely critical from the point of view of passing any barriers.

The focus of the survey in the research YABLOKA, PARNAS and the Party of Growth, as well as their leaders.

See what happens:

The awareness of the upcoming elections in Moscow is good.

The first key difference with the rest of the country is that Muscovites don't want to vote. The percentage "I will definitely go" is much lower, the percentage "I will definitely not go" is higher than in Russia.

I doubt that this is due to the special laziness of Muscovites, most likely they are simply better informed and more acutely feel that the elections are not real.

The second key difference between Moscow and Russia: the rating of "United Russia" here is almost two times lower.

However (see above about “sad”) this does not add anything to the parties with a democratic orientation. APPLE - 2%, PARNASUS - 1%.

The Rostov Party does not exist at all. But there are many more "undecided". Muscovites do not want to vote for EdRo, and they don’t know who to vote for.

You can try to throw out the undecided and calculate the party ratings among those who will definitely vote and have made their choice. I repeat that this can be done with a very big stretch, because the votes of the undecided will not necessarily be distributed in the same way as the votes of those who know who they will vote for. But if this is done, then the pre-election alignment looks like this:

While YABLOKO has a chance to gain only 5% in Moscow, PARNAS - 2%. This means results around two and one percent for the country as a whole.

Scroll through the slides to see the personal ratings of the leaders of YABLOK, PARNAS and the Party of Growth. In general, there is a similar picture in Moscow and in Russia. We see that Muscovites are somewhat more informed about democratic politicians, they get to know them better - but this awareness adds not only rating, but also anti-rating (here it is clear - television is working). This is especially noticeable on Mikhail Kasyanov's slide.

What I want to say about the results of the survey. Or rather, even with what I want to appeal to PARNAS and YABLOK, the parties on whose side my sympathies are:

- The election campaign, my friends. Where is she? There is less than a month before the elections, and I do not see the slightest trace of your election campaigns at close range. I see some single-mandate candidates (and, as befits single-mandate candidates, they hide their party affiliation in every possible way), but not your party campaigns.

It won't work that way. You probably think: in Moscow they do not like United Russia, so the people will automatically carry votes for us. Forget it. It doesn't work that way, and you've seen it yourself many times. In 2003, in 2007, in 2011. We must somehow be present in the political field. We all expect this from you.

26 days before voting. It's already very difficult, but you can still try and make a breakthrough. Attract party activists, volunteers. Take to the streets. Make important statements. To work, that is, as the party should do a month before the elections.

In general, I will note that everything is very strange. MPs are being elected for the next 5 years, and there are almost no traces of elections on the streets. Everything is clear to me with the Communist Party and the SR, but Democrats?

The elections will become elections when we achieve admission of real participants to them.

PS
FBK would like to thank all the volunteers who help us with the surveys. Thanks to you, we have a sociology to be believed.

The procedure will be more competitive, but the results will remain the same

Although, when looking at the party ratings, the results of the September elections to the State Duma seem predetermined, there is still some intrigue in them. So far, there are four main questions: how much United Russia will gain, whether the communists will hold on to the traditional second place, whether A Just Russia will overcome the barrier and whether any non-parliamentary parties will pick up the coveted 5%.

Sociology: no surprises

These will be unusual elections, promises VTsIOM general director Valery Fedorov - according to a mixed system, with a new division of constituencies, for the first time in September and for the first time since 1999 - in the downward phase of the economic cycle. It will be possible to say something definite about the expected results only at the end of August, Fedorov said. This is another distinctive feature of the next elections, because usually, 3 months before the elections, the pre-election campaign is already in full swing, and fairly accurate predictions can be made, he explains. Now, two-thirds of voters do not even know when the elections will take place, and in fact, a full-scale campaign will begin after the end of the vacation season and will last only 3-4 weeks. Considering all this, VTsIOM does not make public forecasts yet, but a week ago it opened on its website the so-called electoral forecast market, where anyone can “bet” on one or another election outcome (the game is “for fun”). So far, United Russia is the leader in this market with a result of about 51%.

According to a study by the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), the share of those promising to vote for United Russia of those who made their choice is about 60%. But some call it simply because it is "heard", while others are afraid to declare sympathy for other parties, says leading FOM analyst Grigory Kertman. Taking this into account, in his opinion, it can be assumed that if the situation in the country does not change significantly, the ruling party can count on about 50% of the votes. According to the latest polls by the Levada Center, there is a trend towards a decrease in the ratings of United Russia, says deputy director of the center Aleksey Grazhdankin: now 55% of active voters (those who intend to come to the polls and have made their choice) are ready to support it. If there are no serious shocks, the situation is likely to be mothballed until the end of the summer, and then the ratings of the ruling party may traditionally go down, he said. Although due to the “blurred” nature of the campaign, such a strong decline as in 2011 may not happen during the holidays.

If we talk about the second place, now it seems that the LDPR has a good chance to compete for it, Fedorov believes - also because its leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky has become a more respectable politician and some of the voters who he used to scare off will probably vote for him. ... However, in the end, more people vote for the communists than are recognized in the polls, besides, even liberal-minded voters who do not want to vote for an ideologically close, but not a passable candidate, can vote for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Fedorov emphasizes. Therefore, his forecast - the Communist Party will remain the second. Competition for the second place will certainly be, Kertman believes, recently the ratings of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia are practically the same. But the LDPR electorate is less disciplined, while the CPRF, on the contrary, is the most obligatory. Therefore, the communists' positions are stronger, although much will depend on the coming months: foreign policy shocks can strengthen the positions of the Liberal Democrats, and economic shocks - the Communists, explains Kertman. Judging by the data of the Levada Center, the chances of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia “taking away” the 2nd place from the Communist Party of the Russian Federation are still small, Grazhdankin agrees: “The ratings of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation have been stable at about 18% over the past six months. Although everything will be decided in the last weeks before the elections. We remember that in 1993 the ratings of the Liberal Democratic Party "shot up" during this period. "

Sociologists had different opinions about the prospects of the Socialist-Revolutionaries. Fedorov is confident that they will overcome the barrier: this is the party with the lowest anti-rating, many opposition-minded voters who fear extremes tend to choose it. But the Social Revolutionaries are always at risk due to the vague image, Kertman warns. With a bright campaign of any of the "small" parties, it is "Fair Russia" that is especially vulnerable and will lose votes, he said. The ratings of Mironov's party hover at 5%, and, apparently, it is unlikely to be able to offer something particularly attractive to voters in the remaining 3 months, so it is not guaranteed to get into the Duma, Grazhdankin believes.

But experts are unanimous about the non-parliamentary parties: none of them has a chance to gain 5%. Yabloko, as the only liberal organization visible to voters throughout the country, can compete for 3%, Fedorov believes: "It is, of course, not Apple of the political market, but still a well-recognized brand." Yabloko's chances even at 3% still look negligible, Kertman argues. But the situation could change if neither Parnas, nor the Party of Growth achieve anything, and Yabloko, in fact, remains the only noticeable party “to the right of the center,” he said. Grazhdankin agrees that Yabloko will not reach 3%: he also has the highest anti-rating (19% of respondents declare their unwillingness to vote for the party), and it is hardly possible to increase the number of adherents by several times in the remaining time.

Political technology: it all depends on the scenario

Political scientists generally agree with sociologists, although they stipulate that much depends on the nature of the campaign.

The question is whether, after all, in the regions there will be an attitude towards legitimacy or strengthening of administration, including due to the appearance at the head of regional lists of governors, says Mikhail Vinogradov: “A figure of more than 50% would not be useful for United Russia, and it is not a fact that it would be useful for the legitimacy of the elections. On the other hand, no one is picking up the votes that United Russia has left in recent months - the increase in the rating of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, the Liberal Democratic Party and other parties turns out to be insignificant. "

Judging by sociology, United Russia will gain its 50%, says Konstantin Kalachev: “There will be party-political mobilization, somewhere administrative resources will be included, no matter how they talk about honesty, openness and competition.” In his opinion, the United Russia party has not yet used all of its resources, because the voters will still vote not for Medvedev, but for United Russia as a political resource of the president and, in fact, for Putin.

In 2011, the main drop happened in the United Russia party at the very end of the agitation period, reminds Alexander Pozhalov, but now the elections are not held at the beginning of winter, when depressive moods are growing, but in the second half of September: opposition at the beginning of September, then a fall is possible, but 43-45% is the minimum that United Russia should have. "

Society is out of balance: on the one hand, people still believe in Putin, on the other, they understand that something is going wrong in the country, says Abbas Gallyamov. Therefore, the result of the party in power directly depends on the campaign scenario, he believes: “If it follows an inertial scenario, people will be disappointed and the turnout will drop dramatically. In this case, the result of "United Russia" may exceed 50% - due to the disciplined turnout of a loyal rural voter. If the campaign turns out to be bright, the result of United Russia will fall well below 50%. "

Experts are practically unanimous about the second place of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Although a lot is in the hands of the communists themselves, Vinogradov makes a reservation: “The question is whether a serious struggle will unfold for the minds of voters or everything will be pretty neat, without radicalization, so as not to strain the partners in power. That is, will there be a radicalization of the agenda in order to attract those who do not participate in the elections, or will the fear of splitting today's assets be stronger. " So far, judging by their list, the communists are not in the mood to surprise themselves and the voters, the expert said.

We always choose in a new way

On September 8, 2016, the seventh elections to the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation will take place. What has changed since previous campaigns?
The presidential version of the law "On elections of deputies to the State Duma" adopted in 2014 provides for their election according to a mixed system, when half of 450 seats are given to single-mandate candidates - for the first time since 2003, reminds political analyst Arkady Lyubarev. At the same time, the passing threshold for parties has been reduced from 7 to 5%.
14 parties that gained more than 3% of the votes in the previous Duma elections or that managed to get their party list in at least one regional legislative assembly can freely participate in the elections. The rest need to collect 200,000 signatures, but no more than 7,000 in one subject.
Only seven parties took part in the 2011 elections, as since 2007 parties with less than 50,000 members and branches in less than half of the regions have been liquidated. But in 2012, a change was made to the law on parties to reduce their minimum number to 500 people. This theoretically allows 74 parties to take part in the 2016 elections. Those who have received parliamentary benefits will surely participate, and only a few of the rest will participate, Lyubarev said.
For self-nominated candidates, in comparison with 2003, several factors have emerged that complicate participation in the elections, he continues. Previously, they could register on bail, and in the case of collecting signatures, they required 1% of the signatures of the residents of the district. Now - 3% of signatures. At the same time, the permissible marriage rate has been reduced from 25 to 5%, in addition, it is required to notarize the data on the signature collectors. A big problem will be the fact that due to the postponement of the campaign for the summer vacationers will not hear or see the campaign of single-mandate candidates, Lyubarev said.
A number of new bans have also entered into force. So, in campaigning it will not be possible to use images of people who are not candidates. People with a conviction for serious crimes will not be able to be nominated to the State Duma - until 10 years have passed since the date of removal or cancellation of the conviction. In addition, NGOs recognized as foreign agents (such as the Golos movement) are prohibited from any participation in the electoral process. Finally, it will be more difficult for journalists and observers. Media representatives now need to be accredited in advance to run in elections. Lists of observers must also be submitted in advance - three days in advance, and one person can be an observer in no more than one precinct. Well, for those who violate the procedure for the work of the election commission or interfere with participation in voting (whether they are journalists or observers), a fine is provided - from 2,000 to 50,000 rubles.

Hypothetically, the struggle between the Communist Party and the Liberal Democratic Party is possible, Kalachev admits: “Zhirinovsky is a man who at the last moment knows how to turn on the“ turbo ”regime. And the flirting of the communists with the image of Stalin can alienate some of the townspeople who voted for the Communist Party last time on the principle “if only not for United Russia”. But the KPRF has a bigger electoral core, and the chances for second place are also bigger, he explains.

The second place will be taken by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, and how far it will break away from the LDPR depends on the Communists themselves, Gallyamov is sure. If they are able to interest the peripheral voter, they will easily gain 20%, if not, they will take about 12-13%.

Pozhalov is also confident that the current situation will be preserved - primarily because the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has a more disciplined electorate, while a potential LDPR voter is much less active. And although the LDPR in many regions is considered by voters as a “second choice party” (it is named when answering the question “Who would you vote for if your party does not participate in the elections?”), It is unlikely to receive more than 15-16%. And the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, even remaining at the level of previous results, will gain about 17-19%. But the communists are not in danger of a breakthrough either, the expert adds: “I don’t see them accumulating voices dissatisfied with the socio-economic situation in the regions. In addition, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has party old-timers and in some places deputies and sponsors in the passing places of the list, while young communists are still pushed aside. This demotivates the party members to campaign actively in the regions. "

As for the Socialist-Revolutionaries, their chances of overcoming the barrier are quite high, although now their rating is “on the verge of passing,” and the party has many problems - with the management of the election campaign, with the popularity of leaders and with rushing in search of their agenda, Kalachev notes. How much the Socialist-Revolutionaries take will depend not on them, but on their rivals: if they conduct weak campaigns, then a disappointed voter will massively vote for Fair Russia, Gallyamov believes. If the competitors are successful, then the SRs may not overcome the five percent barrier, he admits. The Social Revolutionaries will be on the brink, their strong point is the single-mandate candidates, who are backed by Moscow or St. Petersburg sponsors in some regions, Pozhalov adds. But 8-10% is the ceiling for them, and at the moment it is 7-8%.

Finally, experts do not expect surprises from non-parliamentary parties - at best, some of them will compete for 3% of the vote, giving parliamentary benefits and the right to state funding.

With Yabloko, the question is whether they will position themselves as the main opposition force or will they decide to demonstrate to the authorities that they are controlled, moderate oppositionists, Vinogradov believes: and political forces turned out to be more important than interspecific contradictions with the loyalists. " Yabloko is gaining momentum and, given the crisis in Parnassus, it may accumulate a protest voter, but it will not overcome the barrier, Kalachev agrees. The Growth Party and Rodina also have a 3% opportunity, although the chances of this are slim, he says. If the trend for the growth of popularity of small parties existed, it would have already manifested itself by the end of spring, Pozhalov explains. He considers the first place of director Alexander Sokurov in the St. Petersburg group "Yabloko" to be the right step, which will attract the city intelligentsia to the elections. But this is enough for 3%, but not for 5%. Pozhalov calls Rodina a dark horse, which, given its orientation towards the military-industrial complex and the Ministry of Defense, can mobilize a patriotic electorate at the last moment, but even this, according to the expert, will only allow it to compete for 3%.

Party lists: change of places of terms

Judging by the composition of the party lists, the Duma will be renewed by more than half in September. True, there are more than 50% of the current deputies among the candidates, but not everyone will be able to be re-elected, including due to the peculiarities of the compilation of the lists.

Each of them has a federal part, which can include no more than 10 people. As a rule, it is filled with the most valuable party members, since if the barrier is overcome, all ten are guaranteed to get into the Duma. So far, there are only two exceptions - the list of United Russia is solely headed by its chairman, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, while Fair Russia is being led alone by its leader Sergei Mironov.

The list should be split into at least 35 regional groups. Which of the regional lists will be in the Duma directly depends on the number of voters who voted for a party in a particular territory. Moreover, it is not the percentages that play a role here, but the absolute number of votes. Therefore, for example, if the turnout on September 18 is, as in 2011, about 60% and about 50% vote for United Russia as a whole, then, say, Adygea, even with a 90% vote for United Russia, will receive only one mandate, and Moscow with 40% - more than a dozen.

Small groups of United Russia have been created only in the republics of the North Caucasus, and most of the 36 regional groups unite several constituent entities of the Federation. There, United Russia will pass the first 3-4 places on average, and if the list is headed by a “steam locomotive” (19 governors plus the first deputy head of the presidential administration, Vyacheslav Volodin), then all five.

Among those whose re-election is guaranteed even with an incredible 30% of the votes are the Chairman of the State Duma Sergei Naryshkin and all his deputies - United Russia (Alexander Zhukov, Andrey Isaev, the leader of the faction Vladimir Vasiliev and the secretary of the General Council of the party Sergei Neverov), as well as the majority of chairmen of the Duma committees, taking first or second places in their groups: Irina Yarovaya, Pavel Krasheninnikov, Vyacheslav Nikonov, Andrey Makarov, Stanislav Govorukhin (№2 in Moscow). Only the chairman of the constitutional committee, Vladimir Pligin, was unlucky, who, due to the 4th place in the primaries, ended up in the St. Petersburg list only in the fifth "semi-passed" position. There will definitely not be in the next Duma the chairman of the international committee, Alexei Pushkov, who, along with 50 other current deputies, lost the primaries and did not make it to the lists. But several well-known new faces are guaranteed to appear - in particular, the commander of the Airborne Forces Vladimir Shamanov (No. 1 in the list in the Orenburg, Samara and Ulyanovsk regions), "D'Artanyan's son" Sergei Boyarsky (No. 2 in St. Petersburg) and editor-in-chief of the newspaper "Culture" Elena Yampolskaya (No. 1 in the Kurgan and Chelyabinsk regions).

According to a similar principle, 37 groups of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation are structured. The most valuable cadres, including Gennady Zyuganov, his first deputy Ivan Melnikov, Svetlana Savitskaya and Zhores Alferov, entered the federal part. Other members of the party leadership and chairmen of the Duma committees (Vadim Soloviev, Valery Rashkin, Nikolai Kharitonov, Vladimir Komoedov, Sergei Gavrilov) took the first places in the groups (although, as a rule, the second ones will be passed). In addition, this time the communists even have two "steam locomotives" of their own - Governor Sergei Levchenko in Irkutsk and Mayor Anatoly Lokot in Novosibirsk.

"Fair Russia" also put at the head of its 50 groups of the most prominent current deputies, including Oleg Shein (Astrakhan), Oleg Nilov (Petersburg), Alexander Burkov (Sverdlovsk region), Valery Gartung (Chelyabinsk). In addition, several new faces appeared on the first lines - for example, the famous football player and coach Valery Gazzaev (North Caucasus) and publicist Mikhail Delyagin (Krasnoyarsk). The Social Revolutionaries cut Moscow into three groups, led by the chairman of the State Duma Committee on Housing and Communal Services Galina Khovanskaya, the famous TV journalist Roman Babayan and the intellectual Anatoly Wasserman. True, with the expected result on party lists not exceeding 10%, second places in the groups will most often turn out to be impassable, therefore, say, the deputy chairmen of the Duma committees Andrei Tumanov and Olga Krasilnikova have a chance to pass the list.

Well, the Liberal Democrats will not even have all the first places, since the Liberal Democratic Party has divided its list into as many as 135 regional groups. Basically, each of them has only two or three candidates, and several large groups have been created in the Far East, which is traditionally fruitful for the party, as well as in Moscow and the Moscow region, where even a relatively low percentage result will be quite significant in absolute terms. Among the most likely candidates for re-election are the authors of high-profile legislative initiatives of the outgoing convocation: Andrey Lugovoy (Krasnodar Territory), who introduced the law on non-profit organizations - foreign agents, and Vadim Dengin (Bryansk Region), the author of the law on reducing the foreign share in the media to 20%.

Single-Member Districts: Minimum Competition

Elections in single-mandate constituencies are held in one round, that is, to win, not an absolute, but a relative majority of votes are required. Therefore, with a large number of candidates and high competition in the Duma, you can even get, for example, with 20% of the vote. But there will be few really competitive constituencies in these elections - no more than a quarter, Abbas Gallyamov believes: "The political clearing has been cleared, there are not so many people who are ready to take risks in conflict with the authorities."

However, in some places it will be possible to run, and without engaging in such a conflict - these are the territories where the United Russia party agreed not to nominate their candidates within the framework of the so-called inter-factional agreement on the division of districts. Initially, the ruling party was ready to allocate 10 such constituencies to each of the three opposition Duma parties, but as a result, instead of 30, only 18 remained.

In seven districts, a place has been "cleared" for the SRs. In particular, the chairmen of the Duma committees Galina Khovanskaya, Leonid Levin and Anatoly Aksakov, as well as the deputy-actress Elena Drapeko, will not have United Russia competitors (see table). True, the party members themselves make a reservation that this does not mean an automatic victory for their candidates. For example, it will not be easy for Khovanskaya if strong candidates from the non-systemic opposition are nominated in her constituency, because “Moscow has been given an order to hold elections without violations,” says a source in the party's leadership.

The Liberal Democratic Party will receive four districts from United Russia, which will include, for example, the prohibition of the faction Alexei Didenko and the chairman of the health protection committee Sergei Furgal. But the chairman of the committee for public associations, Yaroslav Nilov, did not find an agreed district, and he will have to fight in Moscow with a prominent United Russia member of the ONF Vyacheslav Lysakov.

For the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, United Russia liberated three districts - in the Kuban for Nikolai Kharitonov, in Omsk for Oleg Smolin and in St. Petersburg for the film director Vladimir Bortko. True, the communists themselves resolutely deny the fact of any agreements with the ruling party. “No matter what they say, the most inveterate United Russia members have been put up against our comrades,” says Sergei Obukhov, secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. And Smolin explains the actions of the ruling party by the fact that in some districts it simply could not find worthy candidates: “We received data from an independent poll in Omsk, and, judging by the figures, the United Russia party, whom they planned to nominate there, has five times less chances than I have".

Finally, in some constituencies, United Russia has withdrawn itself for the sake of the leaders of non-parliamentary parties. For example, in the Voronezh region, a place has been vacated for the leader of Rodina, Alexei Zhuravlev, and in Bashkiria, for the leader of the Civic Platform, Rifat Shaikhutdinov.

Real competition is not excluded in a couple of dozen other districts, experts say. So, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation has 40-45 strong single-mandates, of which about 20 can count on victory, including the deputies Vladimir Komoedov in Sevastopol and Anton Romanov in the Irkutsk region, says Alexander Pozhalov. The Social Revolutionaries, in his opinion, have chances in Karelia, Altai Territory, Nizhny Novgorod, Sverdlovsk and Volgograd Regions, as well as in the Astrakhan Region, where Oleg Shein, a deputy of four Duma convocations, is running. Thus, United Russia will take in total about 160 constituencies, which, together with 110-130 mandates according to party lists, will be enough for a confident majority, Pozhalov sums up. "United Russia will obviously receive at least three-quarters of the constituencies, and if, taking into account non-party members, then four-fifths," Konstantin Kalachev agrees.

Effective Monday, September 12, the law prohibits the publication of opinion polls and other predictions about the outcome of the elections. What predictions do domestic researchers give a week before the elections?

Let's start with the forecast given by the participants in the Davydov.Indeks pre-election project. Let me remind you that this is a consolidated forecast summarizing the opinions of 250 experts from all regions of Russia. The study interviews at least 3 participants in each region. Each of them gets the opportunity to make a forecast on the turnout in the elections to the State Duma and the possible results of the parties taking part in them. The arithmetic mean obtained from the set of forecasts is taken as a total. According to experts, the turnout in the elections will be 48%, and only four "traditional" parliamentary parties will enter the new State Duma:

And now about the predictions of other researchers.

According to the head of VTsIOM Valery Fedorov, the turnout in the elections will be 50-54%: "There is a process of" inclusion "of voters on the political agenda. We are fixing it. That is, if back in June the majority did not know when we had elections, they only heard something, now awareness is increasing. Obviously, the closer to the elections , the more people will get involved in this topic. "

At the same time, Fedorov notes that according to the results of the elections, none of the non-parliamentary parties will get into the State Duma of the new composition: “We do not see any chances to overcome the 5% barrier now ... They have to do something unimaginable in order to jump over the passing barrier now.<...>Among the non-parliamentary parties, Yabloko, Rodina and the Party of Pensioners have any significant chances. When I talk about meaningful chances, I don't mean breaking the 5% barrier. I mean get more than 2% of the vote. "

The most acute, according to VTsIOM experts, the struggle will be in several regions: "Irkutsk region, of course. Let me remind you that the governor is a communist, not so long ago elected, all the mayors of United Russia. Of course, United Russia would like to take a certain revenge and consolidate its position. The Novosibirsk region is the opposite situation, Anatoly Lokot mayor is a communist. He, accordingly, leads the communists of the entire region. " In addition, Fedorov mentioned the Republic of Mari El and several "very interesting" districts in Moscow.

As for the VTsIOM forecast for parliamentary parties, Fedorov does not give exact numbers here: “There is no doubt that three of the four current parliamentary parties will retain their representation in the Duma. United Russia will be the winner of these elections in any scenario, and will receive at least twice as many votes as the nearest persecutor. The second and third places will be taken by the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) , it is not yet clear in what sequence. Now, let me remind you, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation is ahead, in the second position is the LDPR (I mean by the mandates in the current State Duma). Now we can say for sure that the LDPR will not fall below the third place and, in in principle, they have a good chance of the latter.<...>

As for the fourth parliamentary party - "Fair Russia" ... Let me remind you that it won 13% in the 2011 elections.<...>Today, however, circumstances play rather against them. Therefore, now "Fair Russia" is fighting not for leadership in the State Duma, but for getting there at all. And they have a good chance of breaking the 5% barrier. Maybe even get 7-8-9%. "

Political scientist, professor of the Department of Philosophy, Sociology and Political Science of the BSPU Dmitry Mikhailichenko (Ufa) is skeptical about the VTsIOM forecast, arguing that small parties will nevertheless become part of the new State Duma: "Of course, the parliamentary parties remain favorites. In my opinion, after all, some non-parliamentary parties will enter the State Duma after the elections. Such an opportunity for non-parliamentary parties, first of all, is given by single-mandate constituencies. Perhaps the Party of Rosta and Yabloko will be able to get into the State Duma. It is clear that given the heterogeneous composition of "Fair Russia" in different regions, this party has less chances. Today the following configuration is taking shape: in the first place is "United Russia", followed by "KPRF" and "LDPR", Spravedlivorossi still noticeably lag behind these parties. It is very difficult to say whether Yabloko will pass or not. In some regions, this party will still gain the required number of votes. "

Political scientist, sociologist, coordinator of the Committee for Civil Initiatives in the Arkhangelsk Region Andrei Churakov agrees with the forecast of VTsIOM, but only partially: “It's hard to argue with the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM). They base their conclusions on a method that has been working for many years and is very serious. colleagues drew other conclusions. The probability of the fifth party in the State Duma at the moment still remains. At the same time, the main issue that will affect the voting results is turnout. If the turnout in the country as a whole exceeds 55-57%, then, of course, the probability If the turnout in Russia is in the region of 45-47%, then the scenario that Valery Fedorov is talking about will be realized.<...>

The figures given today by quantitative sociology demonstrate that the probability of Yabloko, the Party of Growth and other non-parliamentary parties passing is rather low. On the other hand, if, nevertheless, a large number of Russian voters on September 18 deem it necessary to fulfill their civic duty and come to the polling stations, then there is a possibility that the figure, which will increase with the arrival of voters, will affect the passage of non-parliamentary parties to the State Duma.<...>The current election campaign has one important feature. In fact, in the information field, which today is oversaturated with the most diverse news, highly emotionally colored political information, it is clearly seen that more than half of Russian voters will make their choice in just a day or two before September 18, or directly at the polling station. "

According to Alexander Pozhalov, director of research at the ISEPS Foundation, small parties in the elections will be able to pull off a certain number of votes, but their cumulative result is unlikely to exceed 15%: “As for the outflow of votes to small parties, in my opinion, there were serious fears that the active participation of small parties would lead to the fact that a large number of votes would be lost ... I think that in the current campaign, aggregate small parties will gain no more than 15%, maybe 13-15%, and this threat (of lost votes) will not materialize. "

According to the forecast of the Public Opinion Foundation, on September 2, three parliamentary parties will enter the State Duma, most likely leaving the Socialist-Revolutionaries "overboard", whose rounded result turned out to be at the milestone mark of 5%:

The most pessimistic forecast for the "party of power" is given by the "Levada Center". True, in this scenario, United Russia is confidently leading in terms of the number of votes. But SR, just like in the previous forecast, is teetering on the edge.

According to them, 31% of Russians did not participate in the last Duma elections, 16% cannot remember whether they voted or not. In general, the electorates of the United Russia Party and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation are more likely to repeat their choice of 2011, and most of all, those who do not feel the desire to support the party for which they voted for earlier, in the electorate of the SR.

download data

FOMnibus is a representative survey of the population aged 18 and over. The survey involved 1,500 respondents - residents of 104 urban and rural settlements in 53 regions of the Russian Federation. Face-to-face interviews were held at the place of residence of the respondents. The statistical error does not exceed 3.6%.

Do you know, have you heard or are hearing now for the first time that elections to the State Duma will take place in September this year?

DATA IN% OF INTERESTED

Did you go to the elections to the State Duma in 2011? And if so, how, for which party did you vote then?

DATA IN% OF GROUPS

Card, one answer

	General population	"United Russia"	The Communist Party	Liberal Democratic Party	"Fair Russia"
Voted for United Russia	36	57	15	17	24
Voted for the Communist Party	9	2	51	2	6
Voted for the Liberal Democratic Party	5	<1	2	36	4
Voted for Fair Russia	2	1	2	0	20
Voted for Yabloko	<1	0	0	0	1
Voted for Patriots of Russia	<1	0	0	0	0
Voted for Right Cause	<1	0	0	0	0
Spoiled the newsletter	<1	<1	0	0	0
Did not go to the polls	31	27	18	29	29
I am at a loss to answer, I don’t remember	16	13	11	17	16

Do you think you will vote in the State Duma elections in September 2016 in the same way as in 2011, or otherwise?

DATA IN% OF GROUPS

The question was asked to those who went to the elections to the State Duma of the Russian Federation in 2011 and voted for one of the listed parties, - answered 52% of respondents

Why would you vote the same way as in 2011?

DATA IN% OF INTERESTED

Open question. Asked those who will vote in the State Duma elections in the same way as in 2011, - answered 35% of respondents

Why would you vote differently than in 2011?

DATA IN% OF INTERESTED

Open question. Asked those who in the elections to the State Duma will vote differently than in 2011, - answered 6% of respondents

Source of data: - a survey of citizens of the Russian Federation aged 18 and older. May 15, 2016.53 subjects of the Russian Federation, 104 settlements, 1,500 respondents. Local interview. The error stat does not exceed 3.6%.

According to research data of LLC "inFOM" within the framework of the order of the Fund "Public Opinion" (project FOM-OM)